Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W48-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L20-23 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L28-32 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L27-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:78% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:21% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:29% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:63% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.3% | 68.8% |
| 6-3 | 3.5% | 4.5% |
| 5-4 | 13.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 18.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.3%) | 0.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
HoustonKansas
UCF
Oklahoma State
Baylor
ArizonaCCG: 2.1% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
KansasCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 52.0%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
68.8%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29