Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L34-35 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L42-66 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W38-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:35% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:58% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:38% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.7% | 94.6% |
| 7-2 | 5.3% | 45.0% |
| 6-3 | 16.6% | 2.1% |
| 5-4 | 28.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6% (-2.7%) | 4.0% (+0.6%) | |
| 3.4% (+0.1%) | 3.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.3% (+0.0%) | 3.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (-0.2%) | 3.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.2% (+0.9%) | 3.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 3.5% (+0.2%) | 3.2% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TCU
Kansas
UCF
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Texas TechCCG: 6.8% • Scenario: 0.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 4.0% • Scenario: 81.3%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
94.6%
0.7%Any 1 loss
44.9%
5.3%52.0%
0.6%
51.8%
0.8%
50.9%
0.2%50.7%
0.4%
44.5%
1.3%40.8%
0.8%
36.4%
1.2%Any 2 losses
2.1%
16.6%4.5%
0.6%4.0%
0.7%3.6%
0.3%3.6%
0.1%3.0%
1.1%2.4%
1.0%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
1.6%2.2%
0.8%2.1%
0.7%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.9%1.8%
0.8%1.7%
1.2%1.6%
0.2%1.5%
1.4%1.4%
0.6%1.3%
0.4%1.2%
1.4%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
2.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29