ArizonaWildcats

3-1 T1st (1-0) in B12

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

51.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsNew MexicoUNM	W61-39
2	9/07	vsNorthern ArizonaNAU	W22-10
3	9/13	@Kansas StateKSU	L7-31
5	9/28	@UtahUTAH	W23-10
6	10/05	vsTexas TechTTU	Win prob:67%
7	10/12	@BYUBYU	Win prob:55%
8	10/19	vsColoradoCOLO	Win prob:83%
9	10/26	vsWest VirginiaWVU	Win prob:76%
10	11/02	@UCFUCF	Win prob:65%
12	11/15	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:91%
13	11/23	@TCUTCU	Win prob:62%
14	11/30	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:80%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	6.9%	100.0%
8-1	22.7%	98.1%
7-2	31.7%	65.6%
6-3	24.3%	7.4%
5-4	10.8%	0.0%
4-5	3.1%	0%
3-6	0.5%	0%
2-7	0.1%	0%
1-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

39.4%

21.3%

16.1%

15.0%

8.2%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
HoustonHOU@TCUTCU	51.9% (+0.2%)	51.7% (-0.1%)
KansasKU@Arizona StateASU	51.2% (-0.5%)	52.3% (+0.6%)
UCFUCF@FloridaFLA	51.9% (+0.2%)	51.6% (-0.1%)
West VirginiaWVU@Oklahoma StateOKST	51.5% (-0.2%)	51.9% (+0.1%)
BaylorBAY@Iowa StateISU	55.8% (+4.1%)	51.0% (-0.7%)
Texas TechTTU@ArizonaARIZ	28.1% (-23.6%)	63.6% (+11.8%)

Best Winner Combination for

Houston

Kansas

UCF

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Arizona

CCG: 71.3% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Arizona

CCG: 63.6% • Scenario: 66.6%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

6.9%

Any 1 loss

98.1%

22.8%

99.7%

4.1%

99.5%

1.4%

99.4%

1.7%

99.2%

3.7%

98.3%

0.7%

98.0%

2.2%

97.0%

3.4%

96.1%

5.7%

Any 2 losses

65.6%

31.7%

83.2%

2.3%

82.7%

1.0%

82.5%

0.9%

80.5%

0.3%

79.8%

0.4%

79.8%

0.9%

78.3%

1.3%

77.1%

0.4%

76.3%

0.2%

75.1%

0.8%

74.8%

0.1%

74.2%

0.5%

70.0%

0.2%

69.8%

1.1%

68.2%

3.4%

65.3%

0.5%

63.1%

2.1%

62.3%

1.8%

60.7%

2.9%

60.1%

0.9%

59.9%

1.2%

59.3%

1.4%

58.8%

0.4%

56.8%

0.6%

55.4%

0.7%

52.4%

1.1%

51.9%

1.8%

49.1%

2.8%

Any 3 losses

7.4%

24.3%

18.2%

<0.1%

16.1%

0.2%

14.7%

0.2%

14.5%

<0.1%

13.3%

0.3%

13.2%

0.5%

13.1%

0.1%

13.0%

0.2%

12.7%

0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

11.5%

0.1%

11.4%

<0.1%

10.7%

0.5%

10.6%

0.7%

10.5%

0.3%

10.4%

0.1%

10.3%

0.8%

10.1%

<0.1%

10.0%

0.1%

9.4%

0.2%

9.4%

0.3%

9.1%

0.2%

8.5%

0.3%

8.4%

0.3%

8.3%

0.8%

8.1%

0.4%

7.7%

0.6%

7.6%

<0.1%

7.5%

1.0%

7.5%

0.1%

7.3%

0.2%

6.9%

1.8%

6.8%

0.4%

6.8%

0.3%

6.8%

0.2%

6.7%

0.4%

6.7%

0.6%

6.6%

0.7%

6.6%

0.6%

6.5%

0.3%

6.3%

0.5%

6.3%

1.1%

6.3%

0.7%

6.3%

<0.1%

6.2%

0.3%

6.0%

0.9%

6.0%

<0.1%

5.5%

1.7%

5.5%

0.4%

5.2%

1.6%

5.2%

0.3%

4.8%

0.1%

4.2%

0.7%

3.6%

0.6%

3.1%

0.2%

3.1%

0.9%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com