Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W48-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:17% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:24% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:40% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:37% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 96.3% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 94.8% |
| 7-2 | 3.8% | 56.0% |
| 6-3 | 13.3% | 6.6% |
| 5-4 | 26.6% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 31.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7% (+0.2%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.6% (+0.1%) | 3.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.5% (-0.0%) | 3.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.2% (-0.3%) | 3.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.5% (+1.0%) | 3.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 3.7% (+0.2%) | 3.4% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Houston
Kansas
UCF
West Virginia
Baylor
Texas TechCCG: 7.5% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorCCG: 4.5% • Scenario: 15.1%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.3%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
94.9%
0.5%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.5%
<0.1%97.3%
0.1%
92.9%
0.1%
89.2%
0.1%Any 2 losses
56.1%
3.8%86.2%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%67.4%
0.1%67.0%
0.1%66.1%
0.2%65.0%
0.1%64.1%
0.2%64.0%
0.1%63.8%
<0.1%59.2%
0.2%58.6%
0.1%58.3%
0.1%56.9%
0.2%54.7%
0.3%54.2%
0.1%50.3%
0.4%49.2%
0.2%46.9%
0.5%45.2%
0.6%Any 3 losses
6.6%
13.3%28.6%
<0.1%19.3%
0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.4%
0.2%13.4%
0.2%12.9%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.2%
0.2%10.7%
0.3%10.3%
0.2%10.3%
0.3%9.8%
<0.1%9.6%
0.3%9.3%
0.3%8.4%
0.2%8.3%
0.5%8.3%
0.1%7.7%
0.9%7.5%
0.6%7.5%
0.2%7.2%
0.6%7.0%
0.4%6.8%
0.2%6.4%
0.2%5.9%
0.6%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
0.4%4.8%
0.4%4.5%
0.5%4.5%
0.9%4.2%
0.7%4.1%
0.5%4.0%
0.2%3.5%
1.7%2.7%
0.8%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29