Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W28-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W14-7 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:35% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:4% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:51% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:42% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 91.1% |
| 7-2 | 1.7% | 10.9% |
| 6-3 | 10.9% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 28.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 35.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northwestern
UCLA
Iowa
USC
Purdue
Wisconsin
Ohio StateCCG: 4.3% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 37.7%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
91.1%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
11.0%
1.7%33.3%
<0.1%
29.9%
0.1%24.5%
<0.1%22.2%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%5.9%
1.3%Any 2 losses
1.0%
0.4%2.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06