Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W76-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W52-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W40-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-13 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W27-3 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L26-29 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:74% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:87% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:43% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 22.8% | 3.7% |
| 5-3 | 46.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 25.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.9%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+1.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.2%) | 1.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball State
South Carolina
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi State
Tennessee
FloridaCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Mississippi StateCCG: 1.9% • Scenario: 12.7%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
3.7%
22.8%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13