Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W25-15 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-19 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W23-17 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 12.2% | 58.0% |
| 6-2 | 42.1% | 4.3% |
| 5-3 | 38.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 7.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.6% (-0.3%) | 8.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.2% (+0.3%) | 8.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.9% (+0.0%) | 8.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.5% (-0.4%) | 11.6% (+2.7%) | |
| 8.8% (-0.1%) | 8.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.6%) | 13.2% (+4.3%) | |
| 0.4% (-8.5%) | 18.4% (+9.5%) | |
| 8.8% (-0.1%) | 9.0% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi StateTennessee
KentuckyCCG: 60.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TennesseeCCG: 18.4% • Scenario: 47.1%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
57.9%
12.1%Any 1 loss
4.5%
41.8%
68.1%
0.1%11.2%
1.6%10.3%
0.4%
7.4%
0.7%5.2%
25.3%
1.7%
13.6%Any 2 losses
4.9%
0.4%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13