Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W13-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L34-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:26% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:93% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 9.3% | 92.8% |
| 6-2 | 38.9% | 8.1% |
| 5-3 | 39.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 12.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.6% (+0.8%) | 11.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 13.2% (+1.5%) | 11.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 11.4% (-0.4%) | 11.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.3% (-0.5%) | 14.7% (+2.9%) | |
| 38.7% (+26.9%) | 2.5% (-9.3%) | |
| 11.3% (-0.4%) | 14.8% (+3.0%) | |
| 9.9% (-1.9%) | 13.9% (+2.1%) | |
| 12.1% (+0.4%) | 11.3% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball State
Missouri
South Carolina
ArkansasGeorgia
Mississippi State
KentuckyCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
GeorgiaCCG: 38.7% • Scenario: 25.7%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.8%
8.7%Any 1 loss
9.5%
36.9%
93.7%
0.5%
91.8%
<0.1%
14.2%
6.5%
8.2%
0.6%
6.9%
25.0%
5.7%
4.1%Any 2 losses
8.6%
2.6%60.0%
<0.1%14.0%
0.4%13.6%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.3%
1.5%6.3%
0.3%5.4%
0.3%11.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13