SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-13

SECConference Standings

T1Texas A&MTA&M3-05-122.0%
T1TexasTEX2-06-086.2%
T1LSULSU2-05-140.0%
4GeorgiaUGA3-15-111.8%
T5AlabamaALA2-15-128.4%
T5TennesseeTENN2-15-18.9%
T5ArkansasARK2-14-20.1%
T5VanderbiltVAN2-14-2<0.1%
9MissouriMIZ1-15-11.4%
T10MississippiMISS1-25-20.8%
T10OklahomaOU1-24-20.3%
T10FloridaFLA1-23-3-
T13KentuckyUK1-33-3-
T13South CarolinaSC1-33-3-
T15AuburnAUB0-32-4-
T15Mississippi StMSST0-31-5-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

131.3%
LSULSU
vs
TEXTexas
223.1%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
316.0%
TexasTEX
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
47.6%
TennesseeTENN
vs
TEXTexas
55.9%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TEXTexas
63.3%
LSULSU
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
73.0%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
LSULSU
82.0%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
91.6%
AlabamaALA
vs
LSULSU
101.5%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
111.2%
MissouriMIZ
vs
TEXTexas
120.8%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
130.7%
LSULSU
vs
TENNTennessee
140.7%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
150.3%
TennesseeTENN
vs
TA&MTexas A&M

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 86.2%
Game
TexasCCG OddsAway
TexasCCG OddsHome
Ball StBALL@VanderbiltVAN
85.9%
(-0.3%)		86.2%
(+0.0%)
AuburnAUB@MissouriMIZ
86.3%
(+0.1%)		86.2%
(-0.0%)
South CarolinaSC@OklahomaOU
85.6%
(-0.5%)		86.4%
(+0.2%)
LSULSU@ArkansasARK
85.4%
(-0.7%)		90.5%
(+4.3%)
GeorgiaUGA@TexasTEX
62.1%
(-24.0%)		94.5%
(+8.3%)
Texas A&MTA&M@Mississippi StMSST
85.8%
(-0.4%)		88.9%
(+2.8%)
AlabamaALA@TennesseeTENN
84.9%
(-1.2%)		87.6%
(+1.4%)
KentuckyUK@FloridaFLA
86.3%
(+0.1%)		86.0%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Texas

Ball StBall StateAuburnAuburnSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaArkansasArkansasMississippi StMississippi State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Texas

TexasTexas

CCG: 94.5% • Scenario: 74.3%

Ways for Texas to Clinch SEC CCG Spot This Week

South CarolinaSouth CarolinaArkansasArkansasTexasTexasMississippi StMississippi StateAlabamaAlabama
0.2%
AuburnAuburnArkansasArkansasTexasTexasMississippi StMississippi StateTennesseeTennessee
0.1%
AuburnAuburnArkansasArkansasTexasTexasMississippi StMississippi StateFloridaFlorida
0.1%
Ball StBall StateAuburnAuburnTexasTexasMississippi StMississippi StateAlabamaAlabama
0.1%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
TexasTEX100%82.2%7.7%-86.2%
LSULSU100%77.8%12.1%<0.1%40.0%
AlabamaALA-90.3%25.8%<0.1%28.4%
Texas A&MTA&M100%79.8%7.1%-22.0%
GeorgiaUGA-92.8%8.1%<0.1%11.8%
TennesseeTENN-58.0%4.3%-8.9%
MissouriMIZ-48.0%2.3%-1.4%
MississippiMISS--3.7%-0.8%
OklahomaOU--45.6%0.2%0.3%
ArkansasARK-100%39.7%<0.1%0.1%
VanderbiltVAN--32.0%0.1%<0.1%
AuburnAUB-----
FloridaFLA--100%--
KentuckyUK-----
Mississippi StMSST-----
South CarolinaSC---<0.1%-

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
TexasTEX(2-0)56.0%36.0%7.4%0.6%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.5
LSULSU(2-0)10.0%32.9%36.2%16.9%3.6%0.4%<0.1%--6.3
Texas A&MTA&M(3-0)2.6%20.8%40.1%28.2%7.8%0.6%---5.8
AlabamaALA(2-1)-19.8%41.0%29.5%8.7%1.0%<0.1%--5.7
TennesseeTENN(2-1)-12.2%42.1%38.0%7.2%0.4%<0.1%--5.6
GeorgiaUGA(3-1)-9.3%38.9%39.0%12.2%0.7%---5.4
MississippiMISS(1-2)--22.8%46.1%25.3%5.3%0.5%<0.1%-4.9
MissouriMIZ(1-1)-2.0%18.6%37.1%29.8%10.8%1.7%<0.1%-4.7
ArkansasARK(2-1)-<0.1%0.3%3.9%22.2%48.8%24.8%--3.1
OklahomaOU(1-2)--0.7%6.9%23.8%37.8%25.6%5.2%-3.0
South CarolinaSC(1-3)---3.8%21.7%40.4%28.7%5.5%-2.9
VanderbiltVAN(2-1)-0.0%<0.1%0.8%9.3%38.6%51.3%--2.6
KentuckyUK(1-3)---0.2%6.2%40.7%42.1%10.7%-2.4
FloridaFLA(1-2)--0.0%0.1%2.2%16.1%45.5%36.1%-1.8
AuburnAUB(0-3)---<0.1%1.7%12.5%36.3%40.2%9.3%1.6
Mississippi StMSST(0-3)---0.0%<0.1%1.6%13.6%44.4%40.3%0.8

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com