Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W29-26 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:56% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:39% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 32.9% | 77.8% |
| 6-2 | 36.2% | 12.1% |
| 5-3 | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 3.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.3% (-0.7%) | 40.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.3% (-0.7%) | 40.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 39.7% (-0.3%) | 40.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 43.8% (+3.8%) | 18.0% (-22.0%) | |
| 43.6% (+3.6%) | 38.7% (-1.3%) | |
| 39.7% (-0.3%) | 42.2% (+2.2%) | |
| 38.9% (-1.1%) | 41.2% (+1.2%) | |
| 39.4% (-0.6%) | 40.8% (+0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball State
Auburn
South Carolina
Arkansas
Georgia
Alabama
FloridaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUCCG: 43.8% • Scenario: 85.4%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
10.0%Any 1 loss
77.8%
32.9%
94.1%
0.5%93.2%
1.7%
90.6%
4.2%86.2%
2.1%
74.4%
8.2%72.9%
16.2%Any 2 losses
12.1%
36.2%42.4%
0.2%35.7%
<0.1%34.2%
0.7%32.4%
0.1%31.6%
0.4%28.9%
0.9%23.4%
0.4%20.3%
3.4%20.0%
1.4%14.3%
1.7%12.1%
0.7%12.0%
2.7%10.5%
3.4%8.8%
6.8%7.1%
13.3%Any 3 losses
0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13