LouisvilleCardinals

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W51-17
2	9/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W28-14
4	9/20	vsBowling GreenBGSU	Win prob:85%
5	9/27	@PittsburghPITT	Win prob:74%
6	10/04	vsVirginiaUVA	Win prob:80%
8	10/17	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:37%
9	10/25	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:81%
10	11/01	@Virginia TechVT	Win prob:61%
11	11/08	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:77%
12	11/14	vsClemsonCLEM	Win prob:60%
13	11/22	@SMUSMU	Win prob:41%
14	11/29	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:81%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	2.1%	100.0%
7-1	11.2%	98.3%
6-2	25.2%	55.0%
5-3	30.3%	2.7%
4-4	20.5%	0%
3-5	8.5%	0%
2-6	2.0%	0%
1-7	0.3%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

35.9%

25.7%

23.8%

7.8%

6.8%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
RichmondRICH@North CarolinaUNC	27.6% (-0.2%)	27.8% (+0.0%)
NC StateNCSU@Wake ForestWAKE	27.1% (-0.6%)	28.7% (+0.9%)
ColgateCOLG@SyracuseSYR	27.8% (+0.0%)	27.8% (+0.0%)
SMUSMU@Missouri StateMOST	27.8% (-0.0%)	27.9% (+0.2%)
South FloridaUSF@MiamiMIA	28.0% (+0.2%)	27.7% (-0.1%)
Boston CollegeBC@StanfordSTAN	27.9% (+0.1%)	27.5% (-0.3%)
Old DominionODU@Virginia TechVT	28.1% (+0.3%)	27.7% (-0.1%)
ClemsonCLEM@Georgia TechGT	27.5% (-0.3%)	28.2% (+0.4%)
DukeDUKE@TulaneTULN	27.5% (-0.3%)	27.9% (+0.1%)
MinnesotaMINN@CaliforniaCAL	28.0% (+0.2%)	27.5% (-0.3%)
PittsburghPITT@West VirginiaWVU	27.6% (-0.2%)	27.9% (+0.2%)
William & MaryW&M@VirginiaUVA	27.8% (-0.0%)	27.8% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.4%

Any 1 loss

98.5%

8.3%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

0.3%

99.7%

0.3%

99.4%

0.5%

99.4%

0.9%

99.1%

0.4%

98.8%

0.3%

98.2%

2.1%

97.8%

0.9%

97.8%

2.3%

Any 2 losses

61.7%

20.7%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.9%

<0.1%

98.6%

0.4%

98.4%

0.2%

98.2%

<0.1%

98.1%

0.2%

98.0%

0.5%

98.0%

0.5%

97.8%

0.2%

97.0%

0.4%

95.1%

0.2%

78.8%

0.1%

78.6%

0.1%

77.1%

0.2%

74.3%

0.2%

73.7%

<0.1%

72.8%

0.3%

72.0%

0.5%

68.1%

0.1%

66.7%

0.3%

66.7%

0.1%

64.0%

0.2%

63.9%

0.8%

62.1%

0.6%

61.5%

0.5%

61.2%

0.6%

60.6%

0.5%

60.6%

1.3%

60.5%

0.3%

60.3%

0.9%

59.6%

0.3%

59.4%

0.7%

56.2%

1.5%

55.9%

0.2%

55.7%

0.2%

54.2%

0.6%

44.1%

3.3%

41.2%

1.4%

40.9%

1.6%

Any 3 losses

17.2%

28.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.8%

<0.1%

97.2%

0.1%

94.6%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

85.0%

<0.1%

83.7%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

81.3%

<0.1%

81.3%

<0.1%

78.6%

<0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

77.3%

<0.1%

76.3%

<0.1%

76.2%

<0.1%

75.8%

<0.1%

75.8%

<0.1%

73.0%

<0.1%

72.1%

<0.1%

70.8%

0.1%

70.2%

<0.1%

69.2%

<0.1%

68.9%

<0.1%

68.0%

0.1%

67.8%

<0.1%

67.7%

0.1%

67.4%

<0.1%

67.4%

<0.1%

63.5%

0.3%

63.4%

<0.1%

62.5%

0.1%

62.0%

0.1%

61.7%

0.1%

61.2%

0.2%

61.0%

0.1%

60.8%

0.2%

60.5%

<0.1%

60.5%

0.1%

59.9%

0.1%

59.7%

<0.1%

59.4%

0.1%

58.5%

0.3%

57.9%

0.4%

57.1%

<0.1%

56.3%

0.1%

56.3%

<0.1%

56.0%

0.2%

55.2%

<0.1%

54.5%

0.1%

51.4%

0.1%

50.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

46.7%

0.1%

44.5%

0.8%

41.5%

0.3%

40.8%

0.2%

40.1%

0.3%

39.4%

0.4%

39.1%

0.6%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.3%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.3%

0.1%

7.2%

0.2%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.7%

0.2%

5.5%

0.5%

5.2%

0.5%

5.2%

0.1%

5.1%

0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.8%

0.3%

4.7%

0.2%

4.4%

<0.1%

4.4%

0.3%

4.2%

0.2%

3.9%

0.5%

3.7%

0.2%

3.6%

0.4%

3.6%

0.1%

3.5%

0.2%

3.5%

0.2%

3.4%

0.4%

3.4%

0.5%

3.2%

0.2%

3.0%

0.1%

3.0%

1.2%

2.9%

0.2%

2.9%

0.4%

2.7%

0.5%

2.6%

0.5%

2.6%

0.9%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.2%

2.4%

0.3%

2.4%

0.3%

2.3%

0.9%

2.3%

0.1%

2.3%

1.1%

2.1%

0.4%

2.1%

0.4%

1.9%

2.3%

1.7%

1.0%

1.6%

0.4%

1.5%

0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.4%

0.8%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

0.2%

1.1%

2.3%

Any 4 losses

7.0%

8.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

82.3%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

72.7%

<0.1%

72.7%

<0.1%

72.3%

<0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

58.9%

<0.1%

58.6%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

56.0%

<0.1%

54.2%

<0.1%

52.8%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.1%

<0.1%

42.3%

0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.7%

<0.1%

8.6%

<0.1%

7.5%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.4%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.7%

0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.5%

0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.6%

<0.1%

4.5%

0.1%

4.4%

<0.1%

4.4%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.0%

0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.7%

0.1%

3.6%

<0.1%

3.6%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.3%

0.5%

3.2%

<0.1%

3.1%

<0.1%

3.1%

0.3%

3.1%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.8%

0.1%

2.8%

0.2%

2.6%

0.1%

2.6%

0.2%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.2%

0.2%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.1%

0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

1.9%

0.5%

1.7%

0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.2%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.2%

1.6%

0.3%

1.5%

0.5%

1.5%

0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.4%

0.1%

1.4%

0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.2%

0.4%

1.0%

0.1%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com