Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:73% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:12% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:83% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 11.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 31.5% | 89.4% |
| 6-2 | 34.2% | 19.6% |
| 5-3 | 17.6% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 4.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 45.3% (-0.8%) | 46.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.3% (+0.2%) | 45.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 45.6% (-0.5%) | 52.8% (+6.8%) | |
| 45.2% (-0.8%) | 46.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 45.7% (-0.4%) | 46.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 45.8% (-0.3%) | 46.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.2% (+0.1%) | 46.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 45.4% (-0.7%) | 46.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 45.9% (-0.2%) | 46.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.2% (+0.1%) | 45.4% (-0.7%) | |
| 46.3% (+0.2%) | 46.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 46.2% (+0.1%) | 45.9% (-0.2%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
97.2%
10.2%
100.0%
7.2%
100.0%
0.3%
97.6%
<0.1%
96.3%
<0.1%
96.1%
0.1%
95.6%
0.2%
92.2%
<0.1%
91.7%
0.6%
86.4%
1.0%
86.3%
0.6%Any 2 losses
83.4%
26.9%100.0%
2.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.3%
0.5%94.9%
<0.1%94.9%
1.3%94.8%
0.3%94.3%
1.4%94.1%
0.5%94.1%
0.2%92.8%
4.3%87.3%
4.2%86.8%
7.8%85.2%
0.4%84.4%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%39.5%
0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
0.1%31.4%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.8%
0.2%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.8%
0.2%21.8%
0.1%19.5%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%17.2%
0.6%16.4%
0.3%11.9%
0.6%Any 3 losses
36.4%
30.9%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%95.6%
0.2%95.0%
0.5%93.6%
0.2%93.2%
0.6%92.8%
1.6%85.9%
2.9%84.3%
1.5%75.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%40.2%
0.3%37.5%
<0.1%36.9%
0.1%36.5%
0.2%35.4%
0.1%33.9%
0.3%33.7%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
0.7%30.4%
<0.1%29.2%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.5%
0.6%28.1%
0.3%27.4%
1.3%27.3%
<0.1%26.6%
0.7%24.4%
0.3%24.3%
<0.1%24.2%
0.3%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.3%
0.9%21.9%
0.6%21.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.5%
0.9%18.7%
<0.1%17.9%
1.7%17.6%
2.5%15.8%
4.7%14.9%
0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%12.3%
0.2%9.8%
4.7%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
18.1%
8.8%66.7%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
0.1%43.5%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.2%
<0.1%30.0%
0.1%29.5%
0.1%28.9%
0.3%28.7%
0.3%26.3%
0.5%25.4%
0.2%25.0%
0.2%22.2%
0.1%22.2%
0.3%21.4%
0.3%20.6%
0.6%17.4%
<0.1%16.2%
1.0%14.3%
1.8%10.4%
1.7%3.9%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07