Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L10-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:61% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:83% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:54% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:40% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 16.8% | 95.0% |
| 6-2 | 29.7% | 42.9% |
| 5-3 | 28.0% | 1.4% |
| 4-4 | 15.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.1% (+0.1%) | 32.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.0% (-0.9%) | 34.2% (+1.3%) | |
| 33.9% (+1.0%) | 32.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.9% (-0.0%) | 33.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.7% (-0.2%) | 33.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.2% (+0.2%) | 32.3% (-0.6%) | |
| 33.0% (+0.1%) | 32.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 42.4% (+9.5%) | 17.8% (-15.2%) | |
| 33.3% (+0.4%) | 32.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.8% (-0.1%) | 33.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.7% (-0.2%) | 33.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.3% (-0.7%) | 33.0% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.3%Any 1 loss
96.4%
7.9%
100.0%
2.1%
100.0%
0.1%
99.0%
0.3%
98.3%
0.8%
98.1%
0.4%
97.5%
0.4%
96.8%
0.6%
94.6%
0.3%
93.4%
1.9%
91.8%
1.1%Any 2 losses
70.1%
20.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
0.4%98.8%
1.0%97.8%
0.6%97.7%
<0.1%97.3%
1.4%97.3%
0.4%96.5%
<0.1%96.5%
0.6%96.0%
<0.1%94.0%
3.3%90.9%
1.8%90.7%
0.2%88.9%
0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.2%
0.2%69.7%
<0.1%67.3%
0.1%66.5%
0.2%66.4%
0.1%61.1%
0.2%61.1%
0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.0%
0.1%58.0%
0.2%55.3%
0.2%54.4%
0.4%54.4%
<0.1%53.7%
0.5%52.0%
<0.1%51.0%
0.3%42.6%
0.4%42.4%
0.5%42.3%
0.9%41.6%
1.2%41.0%
0.5%41.0%
0.3%40.7%
0.4%40.2%
0.2%37.7%
0.7%33.5%
0.2%23.8%
1.5%Any 3 losses
34.4%
25.7%100.0%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%98.1%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%91.5%
0.4%91.1%
0.2%84.2%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%74.0%
0.1%72.2%
0.3%71.9%
0.1%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.2%66.0%
0.2%65.7%
<0.1%64.5%
0.4%63.6%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.1%
0.3%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.8%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%57.5%
0.3%56.3%
0.1%56.3%
0.7%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
0.3%55.0%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.1%
0.4%51.4%
<0.1%48.6%
0.9%47.6%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.9%
0.5%43.2%
0.8%42.2%
0.7%41.5%
0.9%41.1%
0.5%41.0%
0.4%40.9%
<0.1%40.7%
2.1%40.6%
<0.1%40.0%
0.1%39.7%
0.7%39.6%
1.5%39.1%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.9%
0.4%37.5%
1.1%37.1%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.5%
0.1%30.4%
<0.1%21.1%
2.6%19.3%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.8%
0.4%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.6%
0.3%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
0.5%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
0.8%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.3%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07