Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-07

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

1NC StateNCSU1-02-010.8%
T2Miami FLMIA0-02-045.9%
T2SMUSMU0-01-135.2%
T2ClemsonCLEM0-01-132.9%
T2LouisvilleLOU0-02-027.8%
T2Georgia TechGT0-02-010.0%
T2Virginia TechVT0-00-29.2%
T2CaliforniaCAL0-02-07.5%
T2DukeDUKE0-01-16.2%
T2VirginiaUVA0-11-13.4%
T2Boston CollegeBC0-01-13.2%
T2Florida StFSU0-02-02.5%
T2PittsburghPITT0-02-02.3%
T2SyracuseSYR0-01-11.3%
T2North CarolinaUNC0-01-11.2%
T2Wake ForestWAKE0-02-00.5%
T2StanfordSTAN0-00-2<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

110.9%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
210.8%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
MIAMiami FL
38.1%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
46.8%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
SMUSMU
55.8%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
SMUSMU
65.3%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
LOULouisville
73.0%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
82.8%
Miami FLMIA
vs
NCSUNC State
92.5%
NC StateNCSU
vs
SMUSMU
102.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
VTVirginia Tech
112.2%
CaliforniaCAL
vs
MIAMiami FL
122.0%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
131.9%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
NCSUNC State
141.9%
SMUSMU
vs
VTVirginia Tech
151.8%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
NCSUNC State

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 45.9%
Game
Miami FLCCG OddsAway
Miami FLCCG OddsHome
RichmondRICH@North CarolinaUNC
46.6%
(+0.7%)		45.8%
(-0.1%)
NC StateNCSU@Wake ForestWAKE
45.5%
(-0.4%)		46.4%
(+0.5%)
ColgateCOLG@SyracuseSYR
44.6%
(-1.2%)		46.0%
(+0.1%)
SMUSMU@Missouri StMOST
45.8%
(-0.1%)		46.4%
(+0.6%)
South FloridaUSF@Miami FLMIA
45.8%
(-0.1%)		45.9%
(+0.0%)
Boston CollegeBC@StanfordSTAN
45.3%
(-0.6%)		47.4%
(+1.6%)
Old DominionODU@Virginia TechVT
45.8%
(-0.0%)		45.9%
(+0.0%)
ClemsonCLEM@Georgia TechGT
45.0%
(-0.8%)		47.2%
(+1.3%)
DukeDUKE@TulaneTULN
46.0%
(+0.1%)		45.8%
(-0.1%)
MinnesotaMINN@CaliforniaCAL
45.9%
(+0.1%)		45.8%
(-0.1%)
PittsburghPITT@West VirginiaWVU
45.9%
(+0.1%)		45.8%
(-0.1%)
William & MaryW&M@VirginiaUVA
46.0%
(+0.2%)		45.9%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Miami FLMIA-100%-95.3%-39.8%-0.8%45.9%
SMUSMU-100%-96.6%-41.3%-0.8%35.2%
ClemsonCLEM-100%-95.0%-42.9%-1.4%32.9%
LouisvilleLOU-100%-98.3%-55.0%-2.7%27.8%
NC StateNCSU100%-99.7%-76.0%-6.2%-10.8%
Georgia TechGT-99.9%-88.3%-28.9%-0.3%10.0%
Virginia TechVT-100%-94.8%-42.5%-1.0%9.2%
CaliforniaCAL-100%-90.5%-30.6%-0.3%7.5%
DukeDUKE-100%-87.4%-25.0%-0.2%6.2%
VirginiaUVA--99.7%-70.9%-4.4%-3.4%
Boston CollegeBC-100%-95.2%-37.9%-0.3%3.2%
Florida StFSU-100%-92.5%-28.4%-0.2%2.5%
PittsburghPITT-100%-91.4%-33.3%-0.3%2.3%
SyracuseSYR-100%-95.7%-44.2%-1.3%1.3%
North CarolinaUNC-100%-84.4%-21.0%-0.1%1.2%
Wake ForestWAKE-100%-95.3%-36.6%-0.5%0.5%
StanfordSTAN---50.0%-34.6%-0.6%<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-71-80-80-9Avg Wins
Miami FLMIA(0-0)-7.7%0.0%26.0%0.0%33.2%0.0%22.4%0.0%8.6%0.0%1.9%0.0%0.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-6.0
SMUSMU(0-0)-4.6%0.0%18.3%0.0%31.1%0.0%27.4%0.0%14.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-5.6
ClemsonCLEM(0-0)-3.8%0.0%16.8%0.0%29.7%0.0%28.0%0.0%15.4%0.0%5.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%<0.1%-5.5
LouisvilleLOU(0-0)-2.1%0.0%11.2%0.0%25.2%0.0%30.3%0.0%20.5%0.0%8.5%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%-5.1
NC StateNCSU(1-0)0.2%0.0%2.2%0.0%9.4%0.0%21.6%0.0%29.1%0.0%23.1%0.0%11.1%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.3%--4.9
Georgia TechGT(0-0)-0.7%0.0%5.3%0.0%15.8%0.0%26.1%0.0%27.0%0.0%17.0%0.0%6.6%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.1%-4.4
VirginiaUVA(0-1)--0.3%0.0%3.5%0.0%13.4%0.0%26.2%0.0%29.5%0.0%18.9%0.0%6.8%0.0%1.3%0.0%<0.1%4.3
CaliforniaCAL(0-0)-0.3%0.0%3.4%0.0%13.1%0.0%25.5%0.0%29.0%0.0%19.6%0.0%7.5%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.1%-4.2
Virginia TechVT(0-0)-0.4%0.0%3.4%0.0%12.5%0.0%24.1%0.0%28.4%0.0%20.2%0.0%8.8%0.0%2.1%0.0%0.2%-4.2
DukeDUKE(0-0)-0.3%0.0%3.2%0.0%12.2%0.0%24.0%0.0%28.9%0.0%20.5%0.0%8.8%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.2%-4.1
Florida StFSU(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%5.4%0.0%16.6%0.0%28.3%0.0%27.7%0.0%15.7%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.6%-3.5
Boston CollegeBC(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%5.5%0.0%16.0%0.0%27.0%0.0%27.7%0.0%16.7%0.0%5.4%0.0%0.7%-3.5
PittsburghPITT(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%4.5%0.0%13.8%0.0%25.4%0.0%28.6%0.0%19.1%0.0%6.9%0.0%1.0%-3.3
North CarolinaUNC(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.4%0.0%11.4%0.0%23.7%0.0%29.7%0.0%21.7%0.0%8.4%0.0%1.2%-3.2
SyracuseSYR(0-0)-<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%2.2%0.0%9.8%0.0%23.5%0.0%31.2%0.0%23.0%0.0%8.7%0.0%1.4%-3.1
Wake ForestWAKE(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%5.1%0.0%15.2%0.0%27.3%0.0%29.3%0.0%17.5%0.0%4.4%-2.5
StanfordSTAN(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%4.5%0.0%15.4%0.0%30.9%0.0%33.2%0.0%15.0%-1.6

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com