Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-15 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:48% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:74% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:49% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:62% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.4% | 90.5% |
| 6-2 | 13.1% | 30.6% |
| 5-3 | 25.5% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 19.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2% (-0.3%) | 7.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.2%) | 7.8% (+0.3%) | |
| 7.6% (+0.1%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.5% (+0.0%) | 7.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 7.7% (+0.3%) | 7.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.4% (-0.1%) | 7.8% (+0.3%) | |
| 7.7% (+0.2%) | 7.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.2%) | 7.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 7.4% (-0.1%) | 7.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.6% (+0.1%) | 7.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.5% (-0.0%) | 7.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.3%) | 7.5% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
91.4%
1.3%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.1%
0.1%
96.7%
<0.1%
94.9%
<0.1%
93.9%
0.2%
92.6%
<0.1%
90.1%
<0.1%
87.1%
0.3%
86.8%
0.4%Any 2 losses
46.9%
6.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.8%
0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
0.2%91.7%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%89.1%
0.2%88.2%
0.1%88.0%
0.5%84.9%
0.3%80.0%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.4%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%41.5%
0.2%40.9%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.9%
0.1%35.9%
0.2%34.3%
0.1%33.8%
<0.1%30.2%
0.3%28.4%
0.1%27.5%
0.3%25.8%
0.1%25.7%
0.6%25.2%
0.4%21.3%
0.4%15.6%
0.8%Any 3 losses
28.8%
8.8%100.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%89.7%
0.2%81.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.6%
0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
0.3%43.0%
<0.1%41.8%
0.2%41.0%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.8%
0.1%37.6%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.1%
0.5%32.3%
0.2%31.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.7%
0.3%29.5%
<0.1%29.4%
0.3%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.5%
0.4%28.4%
0.2%27.7%
0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.1%
0.2%25.4%
0.7%24.1%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%21.1%
0.1%20.6%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%13.3%
0.3%13.0%
0.9%12.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
18.0%
3.2%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.3%
0.1%30.7%
0.1%28.3%
0.2%27.0%
0.1%23.8%
0.1%23.6%
0.2%16.5%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07