Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:43% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:85% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:46% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 18.3% | 96.6% |
| 6-2 | 31.1% | 41.3% |
| 5-3 | 27.4% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 14.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 35.3% (+0.1%) | 35.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 34.2% (-1.1%) | 36.7% (+1.5%) | |
| 35.5% (+0.2%) | 35.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 35.2% (+0.0%) | 35.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 34.7% (-0.5%) | 35.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.2% (-0.1%) | 35.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.1% (-0.1%) | 35.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.3% (+0.0%) | 35.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.2% (+0.0%) | 35.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.0% (-0.3%) | 35.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 35.6% (+0.3%) | 35.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 35.2% (-0.0%) | 35.2% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.7%Any 1 loss
97.5%
9.3%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
2.3%
99.7%
0.4%
99.0%
0.1%
99.0%
0.3%
98.4%
0.7%
98.2%
0.9%
97.6%
1.1%
95.0%
1.9%
94.7%
1.4%Any 2 losses
67.9%
21.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.5%98.6%
0.9%98.0%
1.5%97.8%
0.1%97.8%
1.2%97.3%
0.4%97.1%
0.2%95.7%
2.6%95.6%
<0.1%95.0%
0.3%94.3%
1.9%93.5%
0.2%81.5%
<0.1%74.7%
0.1%72.0%
<0.1%68.0%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%64.2%
<0.1%63.7%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.6%
0.4%60.7%
0.1%56.9%
0.3%54.1%
0.1%54.0%
0.4%52.6%
0.2%52.0%
0.1%51.2%
0.5%48.1%
<0.1%47.3%
0.8%46.7%
0.6%45.5%
0.3%44.3%
0.7%43.2%
1.1%43.1%
0.2%43.0%
0.3%42.6%
0.6%28.6%
1.3%28.3%
0.9%24.4%
1.7%Any 3 losses
34.3%
24.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.0%
0.2%97.7%
0.4%96.6%
0.2%96.4%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%92.4%
0.3%81.8%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.5%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.1%
0.3%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%59.8%
0.1%58.4%
0.5%58.2%
0.2%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
0.1%56.6%
0.3%55.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
0.3%54.3%
<0.1%53.4%
0.2%52.0%
0.4%50.6%
0.6%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.7%
0.2%47.8%
0.8%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.8%
0.1%45.9%
1.1%45.5%
1.4%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
0.6%43.6%
0.5%43.1%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%42.2%
0.8%41.6%
1.0%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.4%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.3%
1.3%26.6%
0.2%26.2%
1.8%24.2%
2.3%23.2%
0.2%22.8%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
0.4%1.0%
0.3%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.7%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.9%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07