VirginiaCavaliers

1-1 T2nd (0-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	W48-7
2	9/06	@NC StateNCSU	L31-35
3	9/13	vsWilliam & MaryW&M	Win prob:90%
4	9/20	vsStanfordSTAN	Win prob:84%
5	9/26	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:64%
6	10/04	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:20%
8	10/18	vsWashington StateWSU	Win prob:58%
9	10/25	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:57%
10	11/01	@CaliforniaCAL	Win prob:38%
11	11/08	vsWake ForestWAKE	Win prob:74%
12	11/15	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:41%
14	11/29	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:50%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	0.3%	99.7%
7-2	3.5%	70.9%
6-3	13.4%	4.4%
5-4	26.2%	0%
4-5	29.5%	0%
3-6	18.9%	0%
2-7	6.8%	0%
1-8	1.3%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

34.1%

25.2%

19.0%

14.5%

7.2%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
RichmondRICH@North CarolinaUNC	3.2% (-0.2%)	3.4% (+0.0%)
NC StateNCSU@Wake ForestWAKE	3.2% (-0.2%)	3.8% (+0.3%)
ColgateCOLG@SyracuseSYR	3.8% (+0.4%)	3.4% (-0.1%)
SMUSMU@Missouri StateMOST	3.4% (-0.0%)	3.5% (+0.1%)
South FloridaUSF@MiamiMIA	3.4% (-0.1%)	3.4% (+0.0%)
Boston CollegeBC@StanfordSTAN	3.3% (-0.1%)	3.7% (+0.3%)
Old DominionODU@Virginia TechVT	3.3% (-0.1%)	3.5% (+0.0%)
ClemsonCLEM@Georgia TechGT	3.2% (-0.2%)	3.8% (+0.3%)
DukeDUKE@TulaneTULN	3.5% (+0.0%)	3.4% (-0.0%)
MinnesotaMINN@CaliforniaCAL	3.5% (+0.0%)	3.4% (-0.1%)
PittsburghPITT@West VirginiaWVU	3.4% (-0.0%)	3.4% (+0.0%)
William & MaryW&M@VirginiaUVA	3.3% (-0.1%)	3.4% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.4%

0.2%

Any 1 loss

72.2%

2.0%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

76.0%

<0.1%

75.6%

0.3%

71.6%

0.1%

71.1%

0.3%

70.5%

<0.1%

68.9%

0.8%

67.3%

0.1%

65.0%

0.2%

Any 2 losses

16.9%

8.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

92.3%

<0.1%

89.5%

<0.1%

84.6%

<0.1%

77.5%

0.1%

76.4%

0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

73.9%

<0.1%

73.5%

<0.1%

70.8%

<0.1%

70.6%

0.6%

70.1%

0.2%

69.0%

0.2%

68.6%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

65.1%

0.1%

15.0%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

10.7%

<0.1%

8.1%

<0.1%

7.8%

0.2%

7.7%

<0.1%

5.9%

0.2%

5.6%

0.1%

5.5%

0.3%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.4%

0.1%

5.0%

0.2%

4.8%

0.2%

4.8%

0.3%

4.7%

0.4%

3.6%

0.7%

3.6%

0.6%

3.6%

0.4%

3.5%

1.3%

3.2%

1.0%

3.2%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

3.0%

0.3%

2.7%

0.1%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

6.6%

5.8%

88.9%

<0.1%

82.3%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

81.5%

<0.1%

67.8%

<0.1%

36.4%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

13.5%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.3%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.2%

0.1%

8.7%

<0.1%

8.4%

0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.1%

<0.1%

7.7%

0.2%

7.7%

<0.1%

6.8%

<0.1%

6.3%

0.2%

6.1%

0.3%

5.7%

0.3%

5.3%

0.1%

4.8%

0.1%

4.7%

0.2%

4.7%

0.4%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.5%

0.1%

4.4%

0.8%

4.1%

0.9%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.9%

0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.7%

0.5%

3.2%

<0.1%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.2%

0.1%

1.9%

0.1%

1.7%

0.2%

1.4%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com