Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:42% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:26% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:41% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:41% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:2% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:22% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.7% | 91.4% |
| 6-2 | 4.5% | 33.3% |
| 5-3 | 13.8% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 19.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2.4% (+0.1%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.1%) | 2.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.1%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.0%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.1%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (-0.0%) | 2.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.1%) | 2.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.1%) | 2.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 2.3% (-0.0%) | 2.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.0%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.1%) | 2.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.1%) | 2.3% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
88.6%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.2%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
44.4%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%88.8%
0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.9%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%40.7%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.5%
0.1%30.4%
0.2%27.7%
0.1%26.2%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.9%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
24.7%
3.5%85.7%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%55.0%
0.1%53.5%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.4%
0.1%37.9%
0.1%36.4%
0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.6%
0.1%32.0%
0.1%30.9%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.7%
0.1%27.3%
0.2%26.8%
0.1%23.6%
<0.1%12.4%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.7%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07