Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:27% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:60% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:49% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:38% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.2% | 87.4% |
| 6-2 | 12.2% | 25.0% |
| 5-3 | 24.0% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 28.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0% (-0.2%) | 6.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.0% (-0.2%) | 6.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.1%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.0%) | 6.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 6.5% (+0.3%) | 6.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.1%) | 6.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.1%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.9% (-0.3%) | 6.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.1%) | 6.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.2% (-0.0%) | 6.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.0%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.1%) | 6.2% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
89.2%
0.6%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.1%
<0.1%
93.9%
<0.1%
92.9%
<0.1%
86.7%
<0.1%
86.6%
<0.1%
86.2%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%
80.5%
0.1%Any 2 losses
57.0%
3.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.0%
0.1%88.4%
0.2%83.7%
<0.1%83.6%
0.2%83.2%
0.5%78.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.3%
0.1%20.0%
0.2%19.8%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.9%
0.3%15.9%
0.1%15.3%
0.1%Any 3 losses
32.4%
7.9%100.0%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.1%
0.2%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
0.1%83.5%
0.4%75.0%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%40.2%
<0.1%39.9%
0.1%38.2%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
0.2%36.4%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%29.4%
0.1%29.2%
<0.1%27.8%
0.2%27.5%
0.3%26.2%
<0.1%26.1%
0.3%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.2%
0.2%24.2%
0.2%24.1%
0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.6%
0.1%23.4%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%22.5%
0.1%21.2%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
0.4%18.4%
0.3%17.9%
0.1%17.7%
0.3%17.6%
0.8%16.8%
0.5%16.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07