Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-07
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 1-0 | 1-1 | 84.2% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 1-0 | 2-1 | 23.0% | |
| T3 |  DelawareDEL | 0-0 | 1-1 | 28.0% | |
| T3 |  LibertyLIB | 0-1 | 1-1 | 25.4% | |
| T3 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 1-1 | 14.1% | |
| T3 |  Missouri StateMOST | 0-0 | 1-1 | 9.3% | |
| T3 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6.7% | |
| T3 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-1 | 0-3 | 3.9% | |
| T3 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2.2% | |
| T3 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.8% | |
| T3 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0.7% | |
| T3 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.7% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 84.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 85.0% (+0.8%) | 84.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 84.4% (+0.2%) | 84.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 84.3% (+0.0%) | 84.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 84.1% (-0.1%) | 84.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 84.2% (+0.0%) | 84.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 83.4% (-0.8%) | 84.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 84.5% (+0.3%) | 84.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 84.4% (+0.2%) | 84.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 83.9% (-0.3%) | 84.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Missouri State
Georgia SouthernUTEP
MerrimackCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateCCG: 85.0% • Scenario: 23.4%
Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.3% | 74.3% | 10.1% | - | 84.2% |
| DelawareDEL | 100% | 98.3% | 60.9% | 6.4% | <0.1% | 28.0% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 96.7% | 56.0% | 5.9% | <0.1% | 25.4% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 97.5% | 55.5% | 5.4% | - | 23.0% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 96.0% | 53.5% | 5.6% | <0.1% | 14.1% |
| Missouri StateMOST | 100% | 93.4% | 50.3% | 5.0% | - | 9.3% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 98.7% | 63.4% | 6.5% | - | 6.7% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 98.6% | 57.0% | 4.7% | - | 3.9% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 96.9% | 52.1% | 4.9% | - | 2.2% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | 100% | 92.9% | 47.1% | 4.5% | - | 1.8% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | 100% | 93.9% | 59.2% | 5.9% | <0.1% | 0.7% |
| UTEPUTEP | 100% | 100% | 60.5% | 6.5% | <0.1% | 0.7% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(1-0) | 26.4% | 39.3% | 24.2% | 8.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.8 |
| DelawareDEL(0-0) | 1.5% | 9.6% | 24.7% | 31.1% | 22.0% | 8.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| LibertyLIB(0-1) | - | 8.7% | 26.9% | 33.0% | 21.7% | 7.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(1-0) | 0.9% | 7.5% | 23.4% | 33.2% | 24.0% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% | - | 4.9 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.5% | 14.5% | 26.1% | 27.7% | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| Missouri StateMOST(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.7% | 10.8% | 22.6% | 28.5% | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 4.0 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.3% | 6.6% | 17.2% | 27.9% | 26.6% | 15.1% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 3.6 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-1) | - | 0.5% | 4.7% | 16.5% | 29.5% | 28.8% | 15.3% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 3.5 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 11.0% | 23.8% | 30.8% | 22.0% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 3.1 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 9.2% | 21.8% | 30.1% | 24.0% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 3.0 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 12.6% | 25.8% | 30.9% | 20.6% | 5.8% | 2.3 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 12.2% | 25.5% | 31.4% | 20.9% | 5.8% | 2.3 |
Data from 2025-09-07