Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W41-24 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L21-45 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:78% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:58% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:35% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:49% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:20% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 7.5% | 97.5% |
| 6-2 | 23.4% | 55.5% |
| 5-3 | 33.2% | 5.4% |
| 4-4 | 24.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 24.3% (+1.3%) | 22.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 22.9% (-0.1%) | 23.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 23.0% (+0.0%) | 22.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.1% (+0.1%) | 22.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.0% (+0.0%) | 22.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.1% (-0.9%) | 23.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 23.1% (+0.1%) | 22.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 23.2% (+0.2%) | 22.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.8% (+0.8%) | 22.9% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
UConn
Georgia Southern
UTEP
MerrimackCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateCCG: 24.3% • Scenario: 23.4%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.5%
1.4%
100.0%
0.6%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
99.3%
0.1%
98.8%
<0.1%
98.4%
<0.1%
95.3%
0.4%
94.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
85.5%
7.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.7%
0.5%98.7%
0.6%98.6%
0.1%98.2%
0.3%98.2%
1.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.6%
2.4%96.4%
0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%69.9%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%63.9%
0.1%63.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.7%
<0.1%54.3%
0.3%52.8%
0.4%42.2%
0.6%Any 3 losses
51.0%
21.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
0.1%98.1%
0.3%97.6%
<0.1%96.3%
0.7%91.7%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%76.7%
0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
0.1%72.2%
0.3%71.7%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.9%
0.5%70.0%
<0.1%68.6%
0.2%68.4%
0.3%67.3%
0.3%66.7%
0.5%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.5%65.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.6%
0.6%61.7%
1.2%60.6%
<0.1%59.6%
0.8%58.4%
1.8%58.1%
1.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%53.5%
2.6%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%48.7%
0.1%42.9%
4.6%39.8%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
0.3%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.8%
0.2%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.5%4.8%
0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.0%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.7%2.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07