TexasLonghorns

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

24.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@Ohio StateOSU	L7-14
2	9/06	vsSan José StateSJSU	W38-7
3	9/13	vsUTEPUTEP	Win prob:98%
4	9/20	vsSam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:95%
6	10/04	@FloridaFLA	Win prob:67%
7	10/11	vsOklahomaOU(N)	Win prob:77%
8	10/18	@KentuckyUK	Win prob:85%
9	10/25	@Mississippi StateMSST	Win prob:90%
10	11/01	vsVanderbiltVAN	Win prob:92%
12	11/15	@GeorgiaUGA	Win prob:19%
13	11/22	vsArkansasARK	Win prob:88%
14	11/28	vsTexas A&MTA&M	Win prob:77%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	4.7%	99.7%
7-1	27.3%	61.6%
6-2	36.6%	8.6%
5-3	22.2%	0.1%
4-4	7.5%	0%
3-5	1.4%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

61.4%

25.9%

7.3%

3.1%

2.3%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
ArkansasARK@Ole MissMISS	33.9% (+9.1%)	23.9% (-0.8%)
FloridaFLA@LSULSU	26.1% (+1.4%)	24.0% (-0.7%)
South AlabamaUSA@AuburnAUB	24.7% (-0.0%)	24.7% (+0.0%)
Eastern MichiganEMU@KentuckyUK	25.1% (+0.4%)	24.6% (-0.1%)
VanderbiltVAN@South CarolinaSC	27.3% (+2.6%)	24.2% (-0.5%)
LouisianaUL@MissouriMIZ	24.8% (+0.1%)	24.7% (-0.0%)
UTEPUTEP@TexasTEX	25.1% (+0.4%)	24.7% (-0.0%)
Alcorn StateALCN@Mississippi StateMSST	23.7% (-1.1%)	24.8% (+0.1%)
WisconsinWIS@AlabamaALA	24.6% (-0.1%)	24.8% (+0.0%)
OklahomaOU@TempleTEM	24.6% (-0.1%)	25.2% (+0.5%)
Texas A&MTA&M@Notre DameND	24.6% (-0.1%)	24.7% (+0.0%)
GeorgiaUGA@TennesseeTENN	24.7% (-0.0%)	24.8% (+0.1%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.8%

4.4%

Any 1 loss

61.9%

25.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.4%

0.2%

91.1%

0.4%

87.5%

0.6%

86.8%

1.3%

86.8%

1.3%

77.8%

0.8%

75.8%

2.1%

73.6%

0.5%

53.6%

18.5%

Any 2 losses

11.4%

35.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.7%

<0.1%

94.7%

<0.1%

93.2%

<0.1%

88.9%

<0.1%

87.0%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

82.0%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

80.8%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

74.8%

0.1%

56.3%

0.3%

54.6%

0.9%

28.4%

<0.1%

25.0%

0.2%

25.0%

<0.1%

24.6%

0.1%

22.1%

0.3%

21.4%

<0.1%

20.7%

0.4%

20.5%

0.2%

20.0%

0.3%

20.0%

0.1%

19.1%

<0.1%

18.6%

0.4%

18.3%

0.1%

17.8%

0.1%

17.7%

0.2%

17.2%

0.2%

16.8%

0.2%

15.8%

0.1%

15.7%

<0.1%

14.4%

0.6%

13.3%

0.7%

12.5%

1.7%

10.3%

3.3%

8.8%

2.1%

8.7%

5.5%

5.6%

2.7%

5.5%

8.9%

5.0%

5.4%

Any 3 losses

7.6%

2.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

68.4%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.8%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.3%

<0.1%

16.0%

<0.1%

14.8%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.2%

0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.7%

0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

8.3%

0.3%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.0%

0.1%

7.9%

0.2%

7.8%

0.1%

7.5%

<0.1%

6.8%

0.2%

6.3%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.5%

0.3%

4.4%

0.4%

3.2%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

0.5%

0.4%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com