Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:48% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:40% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:45% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 8.7% | 96.7% |
| 6-2 | 26.9% | 56.0% |
| 5-3 | 33.0% | 5.9% |
| 4-4 | 21.7% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 7.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4% (+1.0%) | 25.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 25.4% (-0.1%) | 25.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 25.4% (-0.0%) | 25.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 25.5% (+0.0%) | 25.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 25.4% (-0.0%) | 25.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.0% (+0.5%) | 25.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 25.2% (-0.3%) | 25.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 25.4% (-0.1%) | 25.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.4% (-0.1%) | 25.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
Missouri State
Georgia Southern
UTEP
Florida AtlanticCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateCCG: 26.4% • Scenario: 23.4%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
95.2%
0.7%Any 1 loss
78.2%
5.2%
97.3%
0.8%
96.8%
1.1%
96.2%
0.9%74.7%
0.2%65.2%
0.1%
64.1%
0.5%
64.0%
0.1%59.9%
0.2%
50.8%
0.6%
41.8%
0.6%Any 2 losses
57.3%
15.2%97.1%
1.0%96.8%
1.3%96.6%
1.4%76.1%
0.3%71.9%
0.3%69.8%
0.3%69.3%
0.1%69.0%
0.2%68.5%
0.2%66.9%
0.2%66.7%
0.2%65.7%
0.5%65.3%
0.2%63.5%
0.7%63.0%
0.6%61.5%
0.2%60.6%
0.2%59.1%
0.3%56.8%
0.6%55.3%
0.9%50.6%
0.7%43.0%
0.6%41.6%
0.7%40.7%
0.8%11.3%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.4%4.7%
0.4%4.7%
0.2%4.6%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.5%
0.4%2.9%
0.1%Any 3 losses
35.0%
23.6%97.2%
1.5%71.8%
0.2%71.6%
0.3%71.2%
0.4%69.7%
0.3%69.4%
0.3%67.1%
0.4%66.1%
0.2%65.6%
0.3%65.0%
0.2%61.5%
0.7%61.1%
1.0%60.6%
0.8%55.3%
1.0%52.7%
0.3%52.2%
0.9%51.8%
0.7%51.5%
0.4%49.5%
0.4%40.2%
0.7%39.7%
0.9%38.7%
1.0%23.7%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.5%
0.2%10.4%
0.2%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
0.2%9.9%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
0.4%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
0.2%9.1%
0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%7.9%
0.2%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
0.1%6.5%
0.5%6.4%
0.1%6.1%
0.2%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.5%
0.4%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.2%
0.2%4.8%
0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.3%
0.4%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
0.4%3.2%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.4%2.9%
0.5%2.8%
0.6%2.7%
0.5%2.4%
0.2%2.1%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07