Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
76.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W28-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:76% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:88% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:90% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 29.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 40.3% | 97.6% |
| 6-2 | 22.1% | 33.8% |
| 5-3 | 6.5% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 79.2% (+2.5%) | 76.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 77.9% (+1.2%) | 76.1% (-0.6%) | |
| 76.5% (-0.2%) | 76.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 76.8% (+0.0%) | 76.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 77.7% (+1.0%) | 76.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 76.7% (-0.0%) | 76.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.9% (+0.2%) | 76.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.7% (+0.0%) | 76.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.6% (-0.1%) | 76.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.8% (+0.1%) | 76.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 76.4% (-0.3%) | 76.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 84.4% (+7.7%) | 52.5% (-24.2%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
28.0%Any 1 loss
97.7%
39.6%
100.0%
1.6%
100.0%
0.3%
99.7%
3.0%
98.8%
3.6%
98.8%
8.9%
97.6%
6.6%
97.4%
0.9%
96.4%
10.5%
95.3%
3.2%
95.0%
1.0%Any 2 losses
40.8%
23.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.5%98.8%
0.2%97.9%
<0.1%97.9%
0.4%97.8%
0.2%96.7%
<0.1%96.0%
0.2%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
0.6%94.9%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%60.6%
0.1%59.4%
0.1%57.3%
0.4%53.5%
0.1%49.7%
0.4%48.9%
0.1%48.5%
0.1%48.5%
1.0%46.4%
<0.1%41.2%
0.7%40.8%
0.4%40.7%
1.1%40.2%
0.3%40.1%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
0.4%36.9%
0.2%36.5%
1.1%36.3%
0.2%35.1%
1.0%34.9%
0.3%33.1%
1.2%33.0%
0.8%31.8%
0.9%29.8%
2.1%28.1%
1.4%27.7%
3.3%21.1%
2.5%Any 3 losses
24.7%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%35.8%
0.1%35.4%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.7%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07