Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:48% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:51% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:77% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:81% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.9% | 91.8% |
| 6-2 | 24.2% | 29.7% |
| 5-3 | 31.9% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 22.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.9% (+0.1%) | 16.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.1% (+0.3%) | 16.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.4% (+0.6%) | 16.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 17.2% (+0.4%) | 16.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 16.7% (-0.1%) | 16.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.8% (+0.1%) | 16.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.8% (-0.0%) | 16.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 18.2% (+1.5%) | 6.0% (-10.8%) | |
| 16.5% (-0.3%) | 16.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.7% (+0.9%) | 16.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan
New Hampshire
Morgan StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 18.2% • Scenario: 88.1%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
93.2%
2.8%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.3%
97.2%
<0.1%
96.5%
<0.1%96.4%
0.1%
95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%
90.8%
0.8%
89.5%
0.6%
89.0%
0.4%Any 2 losses
57.5%
10.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
0.2%98.3%
0.2%97.5%
<0.1%97.1%
0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%91.9%
0.7%91.5%
<0.1%91.1%
0.8%90.5%
0.6%90.5%
0.6%89.0%
0.4%88.5%
0.4%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.4%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
0.2%43.3%
0.3%42.1%
0.2%40.7%
0.1%39.8%
0.2%39.5%
0.2%39.4%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%37.9%
0.2%37.7%
0.4%37.7%
<0.1%37.5%
0.1%36.6%
0.2%31.3%
0.1%23.5%
0.7%19.5%
1.5%14.3%
0.9%Any 3 losses
35.3%
16.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.8%
0.2%97.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%91.9%
0.8%89.3%
0.6%88.6%
0.4%81.8%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%53.4%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.3%
0.1%44.2%
<0.1%43.3%
0.2%42.6%
0.2%42.3%
0.2%42.1%
0.2%41.5%
0.2%40.8%
0.4%40.8%
0.2%40.7%
0.2%40.2%
0.1%39.8%
0.5%39.2%
0.4%39.1%
0.2%38.7%
0.3%38.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.5%
0.2%36.4%
0.1%36.1%
0.2%35.6%
<0.1%33.5%
0.3%31.9%
0.1%31.1%
0.1%30.3%
0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
0.7%23.5%
0.8%20.7%
1.4%20.7%
1.6%15.7%
1.0%13.1%
0.8%8.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07