Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:80% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:12% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:86% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:59% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.6% | 86.2% |
| 6-2 | 16.7% | 22.3% |
| 5-3 | 28.6% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 27.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.0% (+2.8%) | 7.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 7.8% (-0.4%) | 8.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 8.3% (+0.1%) | 8.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.0% (-0.2%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (+0.1%) | 8.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.2% (+0.1%) | 8.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.0% (+0.9%) | 8.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (+0.1%) | 8.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.1%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.2% (+0.0%) | 8.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.5% (+0.3%) | 8.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.2% (+0.0%) | 8.1% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
87.2%
3.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.8%
<0.1%
97.2%
0.2%
96.8%
0.1%
95.9%
0.3%
95.8%
0.2%
95.0%
0.3%
94.2%
0.1%
81.4%
2.1%Any 2 losses
27.8%
13.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
0.5%78.3%
0.2%58.8%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%41.4%
0.2%41.3%
<0.1%39.4%
0.1%38.8%
<0.1%37.6%
0.2%37.5%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.3%
0.1%35.0%
0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.0%
0.2%32.4%
<0.1%32.0%
0.1%31.6%
0.2%28.3%
0.1%27.7%
0.3%26.4%
1.5%26.3%
<0.1%23.5%
1.2%23.2%
0.1%18.6%
0.3%18.6%
2.6%17.0%
1.4%16.7%
1.9%13.3%
0.9%Any 3 losses
15.0%
7.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.5%
0.4%24.3%
0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
0.3%21.1%
<0.1%20.2%
<0.1%20.1%
0.4%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.2%19.7%
0.6%19.3%
0.3%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.9%
0.5%15.8%
0.2%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.3%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.8%
0.9%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07