Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-14
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 1-0 | 1-2 | 89.2% | |
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 1-0 | 2-1 | 20.9% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 1-0 | 2-1 | 14.9% | |
| T4 |  LibertyLIB | 0-1 | 1-2 | 27.4% | |
| T4 |  DelawareDEL | 0-0 | 2-1 | 21.2% | |
| T4 |  Missouri StateMOST | 0-0 | 1-2 | 13.6% | |
| T4 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 7.5% | |
| T4 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-1 | 0-3 | 1.9% | |
| T4 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-1 | 2-1 | 1.2% | |
| T4 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.9% | |
| T4 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.8% | |
| T4 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.4% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 89.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 88.9% (-0.3%) | 89.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 89.1% (-0.1%) | 89.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 89.3% (+0.1%) | 89.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 89.1% (-0.1%) | 89.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 89.2% (-0.0%) | 89.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 89.1% (-0.1%) | 89.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 88.8% (-0.4%) | 89.7% (+0.5%) | |
| 89.5% (+0.2%) | 89.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 89.2% (-0.0%) | 89.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 88.8% (-0.4%) | 89.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
James Madison
Murray StateSam HoustonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida International
TexasCCG: 89.8% • Scenario: 42.7%
Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.0% | 72.6% | 8.3% | - | 89.2% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 97.3% | 56.5% | 5.7% | <0.1% | 27.4% |
| DelawareDEL | 100% | 97.3% | 55.3% | 5.1% | - | 21.2% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 94.9% | 49.9% | 4.9% | - | 20.9% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 96.2% | 51.8% | 4.3% | - | 14.9% |
| Missouri StateMOST | 100% | 92.9% | 46.4% | 4.5% | - | 13.6% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 97.5% | 56.2% | 4.8% | - | 7.5% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 98.9% | 55.2% | 4.1% | - | 1.9% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | 88.9% | 46.0% | 3.6% | - | 1.2% |
| UTEPUTEP | 100% | 100% | 59.9% | 5.5% | - | 0.9% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 95.4% | 57.8% | 4.9% | - | 0.8% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | 100% | 96.3% | 51.1% | 4.8% | - | 0.4% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(1-0) | 35.3% | 40.3% | 18.8% | 4.9% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.0 |
| LibertyLIB(0-1) | - | 9.9% | 28.1% | 33.3% | 20.2% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| Louisiana TechLT(1-0) | 1.2% | 8.0% | 21.3% | 30.3% | 24.7% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% | - | 4.8 |
| DelawareDEL(0-0) | 0.9% | 7.0% | 21.5% | 30.9% | 25.0% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(1-0) | 0.4% | 4.5% | 17.0% | 30.9% | 29.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 0.3% | - | 4.6 |
| Missouri StateMOST(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.9% | 15.7% | 26.6% | 27.3% | 17.0% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 4.4 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | 0.2% | 1.8% | 8.2% | 20.3% | 29.0% | 24.6% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 3.8 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-1) | - | 0.2% | 2.4% | 11.1% | 25.2% | 31.1% | 21.4% | 7.6% | 1.1% | 3.2 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-1) | - | 0.1% | 1.8% | 8.9% | 23.0% | 31.9% | 23.9% | 9.1% | 1.4% | 3.0 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 5.1% | 16.3% | 29.3% | 29.8% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 2.6 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 14.6% | 27.5% | 30.2% | 17.8% | 4.2% | 2.5 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 10.6% | 23.8% | 31.8% | 23.2% | 7.2% | 2.2 |
Data from 2025-09-14