Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W35-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L7-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:20% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:87% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:37% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:66% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:51% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 7.0% | 97.3% |
| 6-2 | 21.5% | 55.3% |
| 5-3 | 30.9% | 5.1% |
| 4-4 | 25.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.8% (+0.6%) | 21.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 21.2% (+0.0%) | 21.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 21.0% (-0.1%) | 21.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.4% (+0.3%) | 21.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 21.2% (+0.0%) | 21.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 21.0% (-0.1%) | 21.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 29.6% (+8.5%) | 10.4% (-10.8%) | |
| 21.0% (-0.2%) | 21.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.5% (+0.4%) | 21.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.0% (-0.1%) | 21.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
Liberty
UL Monroe
Arkansas State
UT Martin
Sam HoustonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DelawareCCG: 29.6% • Scenario: 56.0%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
97.8%
3.9%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%
99.4%
0.3%
98.8%
<0.1%
98.5%
0.2%
98.2%
0.2%97.4%
0.7%
96.5%
1.7%Any 2 losses
65.8%
14.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.1%
0.2%99.1%
0.2%97.8%
0.2%97.0%
0.7%96.0%
1.7%91.5%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.2%
0.2%79.0%
0.3%76.4%
0.9%75.8%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%67.8%
0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.4%
1.3%65.7%
0.1%64.6%
0.1%62.3%
0.1%62.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.9%
0.4%59.7%
0.1%56.5%
0.1%56.1%
0.6%53.6%
0.2%49.0%
0.4%48.1%
0.4%47.8%
0.9%45.2%
0.9%40.7%
3.0%Any 3 losses
25.2%
26.2%100.0%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.5%
0.3%78.4%
0.3%78.3%
0.1%73.8%
0.9%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.0%
0.1%69.0%
<0.1%66.0%
1.3%62.8%
0.2%60.5%
0.4%60.1%
0.6%59.4%
0.1%58.4%
0.1%58.1%
0.2%57.4%
0.1%52.3%
0.1%51.7%
0.9%49.9%
0.4%45.6%
0.8%40.8%
0.4%39.0%
3.0%25.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.7%
0.1%13.4%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.3%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.6%
0.2%8.3%
0.7%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.3%
0.5%6.2%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.1%
0.6%5.0%
0.5%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.7%4.8%
1.5%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
0.7%4.0%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
0.5%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
2.4%3.8%
1.5%3.4%
0.3%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
1.6%1.9%
0.3%1.2%
0.5%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14