LibertyFlames

1-2 T4th (0-1) in CUSA

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsMaineME	W28-7
2	9/06	@Jacksonville StateJXST	L24-34
3	9/13	@Bowling GreenBGSU	L13-23
4	9/20	vsJames MadisonJMU	Win prob:42%
5	9/27	@Old DominionODU	Win prob:46%
7	10/08	@UTEPUTEP	Win prob:77%
7	10/14	vsNew Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:85%
10	11/01	vsDelawareDEL	Win prob:63%
11	11/08	vsMissouri StateMOST	Win prob:76%
12	11/15	@Florida InternationalFIU	Win prob:61%
13	11/22	@Louisiana TechLT	Win prob:57%
14	11/29	vsKennesaw StateKENN	Win prob:88%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	9.9%	97.3%
6-2	28.1%	56.5%
5-3	33.3%	5.7%
4-4	20.2%	0.0%
3-5	7.1%	0%
2-6	1.4%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

88.0%

4.2%

3.4%

2.6%

1.8%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Southern MissUSM@Louisiana TechLT	27.0% (-0.4%)	27.5% (+0.1%)
James MadisonJMU@LibertyLIB	27.5% (+0.1%)	27.3% (-0.1%)
NevadaNEV@Western KentuckyWKU	27.6% (+0.2%)	27.3% (-0.1%)
UL MonroeULM@UTEPUTEP	27.2% (-0.2%)	27.5% (+0.1%)
MarshallMRSH@Middle TennesseeMTSU	27.5% (+0.1%)	27.0% (-0.4%)
Arkansas StateARST@Kennesaw StateKENN	27.5% (+0.1%)	27.3% (-0.1%)
DelawareDEL@Florida InternationalFIU	26.7% (-0.7%)	28.3% (+0.9%)
Murray StateMUR@Jacksonville StateJXST	27.7% (+0.3%)	27.4% (-0.0%)
UT MartinUTM@Missouri StateMOST	27.1% (-0.3%)	27.4% (+0.0%)
Sam HoustonSHSU@TexasTEX	28.1% (+0.7%)	27.4% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Southern Miss

Murray State

UT Martin

Sam Houston

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Florida International

CCG: 28.3% • Scenario: 44.0%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

97.4%

1.9%

Any 1 loss

76.0%

10.2%

97.2%

2.3%

96.9%

2.6%

74.8%

0.3%

73.6%

0.3%

73.4%

0.5%

66.1%

1.2%

53.4%

0.5%

45.0%

1.4%

44.9%

1.1%

Any 2 losses

48.1%

23.3%

97.7%

3.1%

75.8%

0.6%

75.1%

0.4%

75.0%

0.8%

74.1%

0.3%

73.8%

0.3%

71.2%

0.4%

66.1%

1.6%

66.0%

1.4%

51.4%

0.7%

49.7%

0.8%

46.5%

1.7%

46.2%

2.0%

44.0%

1.5%

42.6%

1.3%

14.5%

0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.2%

0.1%

10.4%

0.3%

10.2%

0.2%

9.3%

<0.1%

7.9%

<0.1%

7.1%

0.2%

7.1%

0.2%

6.9%

0.4%

6.8%

0.1%

6.1%

0.4%

5.7%

0.3%

5.7%

0.2%

4.8%

0.9%

4.5%

0.7%

4.2%

0.3%

2.7%

0.9%

2.1%

0.4%

2.0%

0.2%

1.2%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com