MarshallThundering Herd

1-2 T2nd (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

23.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@GeorgiaUGA	L7-45
2	9/06	vsMissouri StateMOST	L20-21
3	9/13	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W38-7
4	9/20	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:83%
5	9/27	@LouisianaUL	Win prob:48%
7	10/11	vsOld DominionODU	Win prob:63%
8	10/18	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:41%
10	10/30	@Coastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:75%
11	11/08	vsJames MadisonJMU	Win prob:44%
12	11/15	@Georgia StateGAST	Win prob:80%
13	11/22	@App StateAPP	Win prob:47%
14	11/29	vsGeorgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:79%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.2%	100.0%
7-1	7.7%	75.6%
6-2	20.5%	47.2%
5-3	29.2%	20.3%
4-4	24.8%	3.5%
3-5	12.3%	0%
2-6	3.7%	0%
1-7	0.5%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

51.4%

23.5%

12.3%

12.0%

0.7%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
NichollsNICH@Texas StateTXST	23.5% (-0.0%)	23.5% (+0.0%)
Southern MissUSM@Louisiana TechLT	23.8% (+0.3%)	23.5% (-0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@LibertyLIB	23.4% (-0.1%)	23.7% (+0.1%)
MaineME@Georgia SouthernGASO	22.9% (-0.6%)	23.6% (+0.1%)
UL MonroeULM@UTEPUTEP	23.9% (+0.4%)	23.4% (-0.2%)
MarshallMRSH@Middle TennesseeMTSU	23.5% (-0.1%)	23.8% (+0.3%)
LouisianaUL@Eastern MichiganEMU	23.5% (-0.1%)	23.7% (+0.2%)
TroyTROY@BuffaloBUF	23.4% (-0.1%)	23.7% (+0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@Kennesaw StateKENN	23.5% (-0.1%)	23.6% (+0.1%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@South AlabamaUSA	23.1% (-0.4%)	23.6% (+0.1%)
Georgia StateGAST@VanderbiltVAN	22.1% (-1.4%)	23.7% (+0.1%)

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.0%

Any 1 loss

76.2%

6.6%

100.0%

1.0%

100.0%

1.4%

100.0%

0.2%

98.9%

0.3%

98.2%

0.3%

91.8%

0.3%

71.2%

1.1%

62.1%

0.6%

23.4%

1.3%

Any 2 losses

49.1%

18.2%

100.0%

1.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.7%

0.3%

99.3%

0.3%

98.0%

0.4%

96.9%

0.5%

95.0%

<0.1%

94.5%

0.4%

91.9%

0.3%

75.4%

1.2%

73.9%

1.7%

73.1%

0.6%

70.5%

0.2%

67.6%

0.8%

63.0%

0.1%

34.6%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

32.1%

<0.1%

25.0%

0.3%

24.5%

1.4%

23.6%

1.7%

19.6%

0.1%

18.6%

0.3%

18.3%

0.4%

15.7%

0.3%

14.5%

0.2%

6.8%

0.3%

5.1%

0.2%

2.5%

0.7%

2.5%

0.4%

2.1%

0.3%

0.5%

0.7%

0.5%

1.5%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com