TexasLonghorns

2-1 T5th (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@Ohio StateOSU	L7-14
2	9/06	vsSan José StateSJSU	W38-7
3	9/13	vsUTEPUTEP	W27-10
4	9/20	vsSam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:97%
6	10/04	@FloridaFLA	Win prob:73%
7	10/11	vsOklahomaOU(N)	Win prob:78%
8	10/18	@KentuckyUK	Win prob:86%
9	10/25	@Mississippi StateMSST	Win prob:91%
10	11/01	vsVanderbiltVAN	Win prob:90%
12	11/15	@GeorgiaUGA	Win prob:21%
13	11/22	vsArkansasARK	Win prob:83%
14	11/28	vsTexas A&MTA&M	Win prob:79%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	5.5%	99.8%
7-1	28.8%	63.4%
6-2	36.3%	8.8%
5-3	21.1%	0.0%
4-4	6.8%	0%
3-5	1.3%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

66.9%

18.1%

12.3%

1.6%

1.2%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
South CarolinaSC@MissouriMIZ	26.7% (-0.3%)	27.3% (+0.3%)
AuburnAUB@OklahomaOU	26.3% (-0.7%)	27.4% (+0.4%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@Mississippi StateMSST	26.9% (-0.1%)	27.0% (+0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@LSULSU	27.4% (+0.5%)	26.9% (-0.1%)
UABUAB@TennesseeTENN	27.6% (+0.6%)	26.9% (-0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Ole MissMISS	26.5% (-0.5%)	27.0% (+0.1%)
Sam HoustonSHSU@TexasTEX	28.1% (+1.2%)	26.9% (-0.0%)
ArkansasARK@MemphisMEM	27.1% (+0.1%)	26.9% (-0.1%)
FloridaFLA@MiamiMIA	27.0% (+0.1%)	26.9% (-0.0%)
Georgia StateGAST@VanderbiltVAN	27.3% (+0.3%)	26.9% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Missouri

Mississippi State

SE Louisiana

UAB

Georgia State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Oklahoma

Ole Miss

CCG: 27.5% • Scenario: 52.7%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.8%

5.3%

Any 1 loss

63.5%

28.2%

100.0%

0.2%

94.8%

0.5%

91.9%

1.5%

91.6%

1.0%

87.7%

1.4%

82.1%

0.5%

77.4%

1.9%

77.2%

0.9%

54.7%

20.2%

Any 2 losses

10.1%

36.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.3%

<0.1%

94.7%

<0.1%

92.5%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

79.3%

<0.1%

78.6%

<0.1%

55.7%

0.6%

35.5%

<0.1%

27.3%

0.2%

26.8%

<0.1%

25.4%

0.2%

25.3%

0.2%

25.1%

0.3%

24.8%

0.1%

23.9%

<0.1%

23.7%

0.3%

23.4%

0.1%

22.2%

0.3%

19.9%

0.2%

19.9%

0.4%

19.9%

0.4%

19.6%

0.2%

19.4%

0.5%

18.6%

0.6%

17.2%

0.3%

17.1%

0.2%

13.6%

0.3%

13.0%

0.2%

9.7%

3.3%

8.8%

1.9%

8.7%

2.2%

8.6%

5.5%

6.1%

7.4%

5.1%

4.2%

4.5%

5.8%

Any 3 losses

7.7%

1.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

36.4%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

8.2%

0.2%

8.1%

<0.1%

7.5%

<0.1%

7.4%

0.1%

4.4%

0.1%

3.7%

0.2%

0.8%

0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com