UTEPMiners

1-2 T4th (0-0) in CUSA

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@Utah StateUSU	L16-28
2	9/06	vsUT MartinUTM	W42-17
3	9/13	@TexasTEX	L10-27
4	9/20	vsUL MonroeULM	Win prob:72%
5	9/27	vsLouisiana TechLT	Win prob:35%
7	10/08	vsLibertyLIB	Win prob:23%
8	10/15	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	Win prob:35%
9	10/28	@Kennesaw StateKENN	Win prob:46%
11	11/08	vsJacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:11%
12	11/15	@Missouri StateMOST	Win prob:27%
13	11/22	vsNew Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:55%
14	11/29	@DelawareDEL	Win prob:17%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	100.0%
7-1	0.1%	100.0%
6-2	0.9%	59.9%
5-3	4.7%	5.5%
4-4	14.6%	0%
3-5	27.5%	0%
2-6	30.2%	0%
1-7	17.8%	0%
0-8	4.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

78.6%

6.0%

6.0%

4.8%

4.8%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Southern MissUSM@Louisiana TechLT	0.9% (-0.0%)	0.9% (+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@LibertyLIB	0.9% (+0.0%)	0.9% (+0.0%)
NevadaNEV@Western KentuckyWKU	0.9% (+0.0%)	0.9% (+0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@UTEPUTEP	0.8% (-0.1%)	0.9% (+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Middle TennesseeMTSU	0.9% (+0.0%)	0.8% (-0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@Kennesaw StateKENN	0.9% (-0.1%)	0.9% (+0.1%)
DelawareDEL@Florida InternationalFIU	0.9% (-0.0%)	0.9% (+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Jacksonville StateJXST	1.0% (+0.1%)	0.9% (-0.0%)
UT MartinUTM@Missouri StateMOST	0.9% (+0.0%)	0.9% (+0.0%)
Sam HoustonSHSU@TexasTEX	1.0% (+0.1%)	0.9% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Southern Miss

James Madison

Western Kentucky

UTEP

Kennesaw State

UT Martin

Sam Houston

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UTEP

Marshall

Kennesaw State

CCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 30.6%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

63.5%

0.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

76.2%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

74.1%

<0.1%

73.3%

<0.1%

73.3%

<0.1%

72.2%

<0.1%

71.7%

<0.1%

67.4%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

65.0%

<0.1%

64.7%

<0.1%

60.9%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

56.9%

<0.1%

54.6%

0.1%

53.6%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.1%

<0.1%

43.2%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com