Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:48% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:52% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:78% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:81% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:91% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:38% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:69% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:55% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.0% | 84.2% |
| 6-2 | 31.1% | 18.9% |
| 5-3 | 31.6% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 16.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 20.3% (+0.1%) | 19.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 19.1% (-1.1%) | 22.5% (+2.4%) | |
| 20.1% (-0.1%) | 20.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.1% (-0.1%) | 20.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.6% (-0.6%) | 20.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.0% (-0.1%) | 20.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 20.0% (-0.1%) | 20.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 20.2% (+0.0%) | 20.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.7% (-0.4%) | 20.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.0% (-0.2%) | 20.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 20.5% (+0.4%) | 20.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Any 1 loss
88.8%
4.8%
100.0%
0.7%
100.0%
0.6%
96.4%
0.3%
96.2%
0.1%
94.3%
0.2%
93.5%
<0.1%
85.2%
0.4%
82.8%
1.5%
81.6%
1.0%Any 2 losses
51.7%
15.2%100.0%
0.6%95.9%
0.1%93.3%
0.1%92.5%
0.2%92.4%
0.2%90.8%
0.3%90.7%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%88.8%
0.2%85.8%
0.5%83.7%
0.9%82.1%
0.4%81.9%
1.4%81.8%
1.0%80.2%
1.5%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%33.3%
0.1%31.7%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%29.3%
0.2%29.2%
0.4%28.0%
0.6%27.6%
0.1%27.5%
0.2%27.0%
0.4%25.8%
0.4%24.8%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%18.7%
0.3%14.8%
0.8%12.0%
2.4%10.1%
1.3%Any 3 losses
30.7%
19.2%94.3%
<0.1%92.9%
0.3%89.8%
0.1%89.7%
0.2%84.0%
0.5%83.0%
1.4%82.4%
1.0%72.4%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%36.3%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%32.3%
0.1%32.0%
0.4%31.3%
0.2%30.2%
0.2%30.0%
0.1%29.7%
0.4%29.3%
<0.1%29.3%
0.1%28.6%
0.3%27.3%
0.2%26.3%
0.3%26.2%
0.7%25.5%
0.2%24.8%
0.4%24.2%
0.3%23.5%
0.6%23.3%
0.1%22.1%
0.5%22.0%
0.2%20.6%
0.4%20.5%
0.1%19.0%
0.1%15.1%
0.8%13.8%
0.8%12.5%
2.6%11.6%
1.3%10.9%
2.2%10.4%
1.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14