Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-17 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W28-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:88% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:71% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:39% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:83% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.7% | 97.3% |
| 6-2 | 28.5% | 50.7% |
| 5-3 | 29.1% | 2.3% |
| 4-4 | 17.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 30.5% (-1.9%) | 34.2% (+1.8%) | |
| 32.3% (-0.1%) | 32.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.3% (-0.1%) | 32.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.4% (-0.0%) | 32.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.0% (-0.4%) | 32.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.0% (-0.4%) | 32.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.3% (-0.1%) | 32.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.1% (-0.3%) | 32.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.6% (+0.2%) | 32.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.6% (+0.1%) | 32.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.1% (-0.3%) | 32.4% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.1%Any 1 loss
97.6%
11.4%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
0.3%
99.6%
0.5%
98.6%
0.4%
98.3%
0.9%
98.0%
0.6%
97.9%
0.8%
97.4%
2.5%
96.8%
1.3%
96.7%
3.5%Any 2 losses
58.2%
24.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.8%
0.1%97.7%
0.2%97.0%
<0.1%97.0%
0.3%97.0%
0.3%96.8%
0.6%96.7%
0.2%96.7%
0.4%96.2%
0.7%96.2%
0.1%78.8%
<0.1%74.9%
0.2%69.9%
0.1%69.4%
0.3%68.7%
0.2%68.2%
0.2%66.5%
0.2%63.9%
0.6%61.9%
0.2%61.2%
0.2%60.6%
1.0%60.1%
0.5%59.5%
0.3%59.3%
0.7%59.0%
1.1%58.7%
0.7%58.0%
0.3%57.8%
0.1%55.0%
0.5%52.2%
0.5%52.1%
1.3%51.9%
0.8%50.8%
1.4%50.7%
1.0%48.4%
0.4%41.3%
1.6%40.6%
4.0%39.8%
2.1%Any 3 losses
15.6%
28.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.4%
0.1%96.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.0%
0.1%70.8%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.7%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
0.1%60.0%
0.1%59.4%
0.2%59.3%
0.2%58.9%
0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.2%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.8%
0.1%52.5%
0.2%51.9%
0.2%51.5%
0.2%51.5%
0.2%50.9%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
0.1%49.0%
0.1%47.6%
0.3%46.9%
0.1%45.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.8%
0.2%41.7%
<0.1%40.6%
0.9%40.1%
0.6%39.9%
0.2%39.5%
0.3%37.9%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.6%
0.3%36.4%
0.5%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.8%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
0.2%3.8%
0.4%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
0.4%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
0.3%3.4%
0.3%3.4%
0.2%3.4%
0.5%3.3%
0.2%3.1%
0.3%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.8%
0.5%2.7%
0.4%2.7%
0.3%2.7%
1.5%2.6%
0.4%2.5%
0.3%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
0.8%2.3%
1.7%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.7%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.4%1.9%
0.8%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.9%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.6%1.6%
0.7%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
1.1%1.5%
0.7%1.4%
2.5%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
7.1%
6.6%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%37.5%
0.1%35.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.4%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.3%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.0%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.3%
0.4%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14