Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
39.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:69% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:95% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:97% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:54% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:94% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 8.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 27.7% | 83.9% |
| 6-2 | 34.3% | 21.8% |
| 5-3 | 21.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 6.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.6% (-0.0%) | 39.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 47.6% (+8.1%) | 21.5% (-18.1%) | |
| 39.7% (+0.1%) | 39.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 39.8% (+0.2%) | 39.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 39.7% (+0.1%) | 39.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 38.4% (-1.2%) | 39.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.3% (-0.3%) | 39.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.8% (+0.2%) | 39.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 40.1% (+0.5%) | 39.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.1% (+0.5%) | 39.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 39.1% (-0.5%) | 39.6% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.1%Any 1 loss
89.5%
15.6%
100.0%
5.7%
94.2%
<0.1%
93.6%
0.2%
93.3%
1.4%
92.9%
0.8%
91.1%
0.2%
84.9%
2.7%
82.2%
1.6%
74.0%
2.9%Any 2 losses
59.0%
30.0%94.9%
0.4%93.2%
1.4%92.6%
0.3%92.5%
2.4%91.1%
0.1%85.6%
4.9%82.5%
3.0%76.6%
<0.1%76.4%
5.3%69.2%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%53.7%
0.4%47.9%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%43.6%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
0.2%36.5%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.4%
0.6%27.5%
<0.1%27.2%
0.4%26.7%
1.1%24.3%
0.2%23.4%
0.8%23.1%
0.7%22.1%
0.1%22.0%
1.3%20.1%
0.2%13.6%
1.5%12.2%
2.4%11.8%
1.5%11.4%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
21.8%
22.5%100.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%57.6%
0.1%54.0%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.0%
0.6%48.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.5%
0.2%38.4%
0.3%36.8%
0.3%36.0%
0.1%34.7%
1.2%34.0%
0.2%33.0%
<0.1%31.5%
0.7%27.4%
2.2%27.1%
0.4%25.7%
1.5%25.0%
0.3%21.0%
2.4%20.8%
1.3%19.4%
0.2%14.0%
2.7%12.1%
4.3%10.8%
2.7%5.6%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14