Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L12-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-52 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:73% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:24% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:92% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:41% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:30% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:35% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:72% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.3% | 68.4% |
| 6-2 | 14.0% | 40.2% |
| 5-3 | 28.0% | 13.3% |
| 4-4 | 31.0% | 0.9% |
| 3-5 | 18.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.0% (-0.1%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.2% (+0.0%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.0% (-0.1%) | 12.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 11.8% (-0.4%) | 12.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.1%) | 12.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.0%) | 12.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.1% (-0.1%) | 12.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 12.0% (-0.2%) | 12.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 12.0% (-0.1%) | 12.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.2% (+0.0%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.7%) | 12.1% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
70.2%
2.5%
100.0%
0.8%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.4%
<0.1%
63.7%
0.4%
49.6%
0.6%
16.2%
0.4%Any 2 losses
55.4%
8.3%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
0.3%97.1%
<0.1%73.1%
0.4%73.0%
1.1%67.5%
0.1%58.5%
1.7%58.4%
0.5%50.0%
<0.1%39.2%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%22.8%
1.4%22.4%
0.2%19.4%
0.4%12.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%2.5%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14