OhioBobcats

1-2 T2nd (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

72.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	@RutgersRUTG	L31-34
2	9/06	vsWest VirginiaWVU	W17-10
3	9/13	@Ohio StateOSU	L9-37
4	9/20	vsGardner-WebbGWEB	Win prob:90%
5	9/27	vsBowling GreenBGSU	Win prob:80%
6	10/04	@Ball StateBALL	Win prob:94%
8	10/18	vsNorthern IllinoisNIU	Win prob:78%
9	10/25	@Eastern MichiganEMU	Win prob:87%
10	11/04	vsMiami (OH)M-OH	Win prob:81%
11	11/11	@Western MichiganWMU	Win prob:81%
12	11/18	vsMassachusettsMASS	Win prob:97%
14	11/28	@BuffaloBUF	Win prob:72%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	23.4%	100.0%
7-1	38.2%	96.8%
6-2	26.1%	47.7%
5-3	9.8%	1.2%
4-4	2.3%	0%
3-5	0.3%	0%
2-6	0.0%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

35.0%

21.4%

16.2%

15.0%

12.4%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
LouisianaUL@Eastern MichiganEMU	72.9% (-0.0%)	72.9% (+0.0%)
ToledoTOL@Western MichiganWMU	71.1% (-1.8%)	76.9% (+4.0%)
TroyTROY@BuffaloBUF	72.9% (-0.0%)	72.9% (+0.0%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@Mississippi StateMSST	72.9% (-0.0%)	72.9% (+0.0%)
WagnerWAG@Central MichiganCMU	73.4% (+0.5%)	72.8% (-0.1%)
Ball StateBALL@UConnCONN	73.6% (+0.7%)	72.8% (-0.1%)
Gardner-WebbGWEB@OhioOHIO	73.7% (+0.8%)	72.8% (-0.1%)
UNLVUNLV@Miami (OH)M-OH	72.8% (-0.1%)	73.1% (+0.2%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@LouisvilleLOU	72.8% (-0.1%)	72.9% (+0.0%)
DuquesneDUQ@AkronAKR	73.2% (+0.3%)	72.9% (-0.0%)
Kent StateKENT@Florida StateFSU	72.1% (-0.7%)	72.9% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

21.1%

Any 1 loss

96.9%

36.6%

100.0%

2.3%

99.7%

0.7%

99.6%

3.2%

98.1%

1.3%

97.8%

4.9%

96.6%

8.3%

96.5%

5.8%

96.1%

4.9%

94.2%

5.2%

Any 2 losses

54.7%

27.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.7%

0.4%

98.8%

0.2%

98.8%

0.6%

96.5%

0.9%

96.3%

0.7%

96.0%

0.6%

94.0%

0.6%

81.8%

0.2%

81.1%

<0.1%

80.6%

0.1%

74.1%

0.3%

72.7%

0.8%

66.9%

0.2%

66.5%

0.2%

58.9%

0.4%

58.8%

0.5%

57.0%

0.3%

56.2%

1.9%

56.1%

0.3%

54.7%

1.4%

54.5%

0.3%

54.3%

0.8%

53.7%

0.2%

52.5%

1.3%

52.4%

0.2%

51.7%

0.8%

50.6%

0.9%

49.4%

1.1%

49.3%

1.1%

38.6%

2.0%

38.5%

2.1%

38.4%

2.3%

35.7%

1.3%

34.3%

1.5%

33.8%

1.2%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com