TroyTrojans

1-2 T2nd (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNichollsNICH	W38-20
2	9/06	@ClemsonCLEM	L16-27
3	9/13	vsMemphisMEM	L7-28
4	9/20	@BuffaloBUF	Win prob:52%
6	10/04	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	Win prob:46%
7	10/11	@Texas StateTXST	Win prob:23%
8	10/18	@UL MonroeULM	Win prob:85%
9	10/25	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:59%
10	11/01	vsArkansas StateARST	Win prob:84%
12	11/13	@Old DominionODU	Win prob:42%
13	11/22	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:86%
14	11/29	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:87%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.4%	100.0%
7-1	10.1%	48.8%
6-2	26.3%	19.2%
5-3	32.9%	3.0%
4-4	20.9%	0.3%
3-5	7.1%	0%
2-6	1.3%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

49.3%

23.1%

13.2%

12.7%

1.7%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
NichollsNICH@Texas StateTXST	12.1% (-0.3%)	12.4% (+0.0%)
Southern MissUSM@Louisiana TechLT	12.6% (+0.2%)	12.4% (-0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@LibertyLIB	12.3% (-0.1%)	12.5% (+0.1%)
MaineME@Georgia SouthernGASO	12.2% (-0.2%)	12.4% (+0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@UTEPUTEP	12.4% (-0.0%)	12.4% (+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Middle TennesseeMTSU	12.4% (+0.0%)	12.4% (-0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Eastern MichiganEMU	12.4% (-0.0%)	12.4% (+0.0%)
TroyTROY@BuffaloBUF	12.4% (+0.0%)	12.4% (-0.0%)
Arkansas StateARST@Kennesaw StateKENN	12.4% (+0.0%)	12.4% (+0.0%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@South AlabamaUSA	12.3% (-0.1%)	12.4% (+0.0%)
Georgia StateGAST@VanderbiltVAN	11.8% (-0.6%)	12.5% (+0.1%)

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.7%

Any 1 loss

54.8%

5.9%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

0.7%

100.0%

1.0%

100.0%

0.1%

99.2%

0.1%

95.8%

0.1%

63.4%

0.5%

34.8%

0.9%

20.2%

2.4%

Any 2 losses

37.6%

13.3%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.1%

0.2%

97.6%

0.1%

97.3%

0.1%

95.7%

<0.1%

66.4%

0.7%

62.2%

0.5%

61.2%

0.1%

47.1%

<0.1%

41.7%

<0.1%

40.9%

0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

35.5%

1.2%

32.7%

0.8%

24.3%

0.4%

22.1%

3.2%

20.6%

2.2%

9.2%

0.1%

6.9%

0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

5.2%

0.1%

4.0%

0.4%

2.3%

0.2%

2.1%

0.2%

2.1%

0.4%

1.9%

0.5%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com