Sun Belt Conference

Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-14

Sun Belt ConferenceConference Standings

1Southern MissUSM1-02-1<0.1%
T2Texas StTXST0-02-151.5%
T2James MadisonJMU0-01-148.6%
T2MarshallMRSH0-01-223.5%
T2South AlabamaUSA0-01-223.2%
T2Appalachian StAPP0-12-113.3%
T2TroyTROY0-01-212.4%
T2LouisianaUL0-01-212.2%
T2Old DominionODU0-02-111.6%
T2Ga SouthernGASO0-01-21.8%
T2Coastal CarCCU0-01-20.8%
T2Arkansas StARST0-01-20.6%
T2Georgia StGAST0-01-20.4%
T2ULMULM0-01-1<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Sun Belt Conference CCG Matchups

125.2%
James MadisonJMU
vs
TXSTTexas St
212.1%
MarshallMRSH
vs
TXSTTexas St
311.1%
James MadisonJMU
vs
USASouth Alabama
46.8%
Appalachian StAPP
vs
TXSTTexas St
56.0%
James MadisonJMU
vs
TROYTroy
65.9%
James MadisonJMU
vs
ULLouisiana
75.9%
Old DominionODU
vs
TXSTTexas St
85.5%
MarshallMRSH
vs
USASouth Alabama
93.2%
Appalachian StAPP
vs
USASouth Alabama
102.9%
LouisianaUL
vs
MRSHMarshall
112.8%
MarshallMRSH
vs
TROYTroy
122.7%
Old DominionODU
vs
USASouth Alabama
131.6%
Appalachian StAPP
vs
TROYTroy
141.6%
Appalachian StAPP
vs
ULLouisiana
151.6%
Old DominionODU
vs
TROYTroy

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Sun Belt ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Sun Belt Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 51.5%
Game
Texas StCCG OddsAway
Texas StCCG OddsHome
NichollsNICH@Texas StTXST
52.3%
(+0.8%)		51.4%
(-0.1%)
Southern MissUSM@Louisiana TechLT
51.5%
(-0.0%)		51.5%
(+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@LibertyLIB
51.6%
(+0.1%)		51.4%
(-0.1%)
MaineME@Ga SouthernGASO
52.2%
(+0.7%)		51.4%
(-0.1%)
ULMULM@UTEPUTEP
51.3%
(-0.2%)		51.6%
(+0.1%)
MarshallMRSH@MTSUMTSU
51.5%
(+0.1%)		51.2%
(-0.3%)
LouisianaUL@E MichiganEMU
51.6%
(+0.1%)		51.3%
(-0.2%)
TroyTROY@BuffaloBUF
51.4%
(-0.1%)		51.5%
(+0.1%)
Arkansas StARST@KennesawKENN
51.6%
(+0.1%)		51.4%
(-0.1%)
Coastal CarCCU@South AlabamaUSA
51.3%
(-0.1%)		51.5%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@VanderbiltVAN
51.2%
(-0.3%)		51.5%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Sun Belt ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-5Overall
Texas StTXST100%76.4%49.0%22.0%2.5%-51.5%
James MadisonJMU100%81.4%54.9%22.7%4.6%-48.6%
MarshallMRSH100%75.6%47.2%20.3%3.5%-23.5%
South AlabamaUSA100%42.5%10.4%1.9%0.2%-23.2%
Appalachian StAPP-100%53.6%8.9%0.9%-13.3%
TroyTROY100%48.8%19.2%3.0%0.3%-12.4%
LouisianaUL100%68.4%40.2%13.3%0.9%-12.2%
Old DominionODU100%58.4%19.0%3.9%0.4%-11.6%
Ga SouthernGASO100%60.4%13.4%1.8%0.1%-1.8%
Coastal CarCCU100%76.3%37.4%7.2%0.6%-0.8%
Arkansas StARST100%67.2%26.6%5.5%0.6%-0.6%
Georgia StGAST-50.0%39.2%18.4%3.7%<0.1%0.4%
ULMULM--11.1%5.1%0.6%-<0.1%
Southern MissUSM-75.0%10.6%1.9%--<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Sun Belt ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
Texas StTXST(0-0)9.3%27.7%33.1%21.0%7.3%1.5%0.1%<0.1%0.0%6.1
South AlabamaUSA(0-0)7.2%27.9%36.1%21.2%6.4%1.1%0.1%<0.1%0.0%6.0
James MadisonJMU(0-0)5.9%22.7%33.1%24.7%10.5%2.7%0.4%<0.1%0.0%5.8
TroyTROY(0-0)1.4%10.1%26.3%32.9%20.9%7.1%1.3%0.1%<0.1%5.1
Old DominionODU(0-0)1.1%8.1%23.0%31.6%23.5%10.1%2.3%0.3%<0.1%4.9
MarshallMRSH(0-0)1.2%7.7%20.5%29.2%24.8%12.3%3.7%0.5%<0.1%4.8
Appalachian StAPP(0-1)-2.4%14.6%31.3%31.2%15.6%4.3%0.6%<0.1%4.4
LouisianaUL(0-0)0.3%3.3%14.0%28.0%31.0%18.1%4.9%0.5%<0.1%4.4
Ga SouthernGASO(0-0)<0.1%0.9%5.8%18.8%31.2%27.7%12.6%2.7%0.2%3.7
Arkansas StARST(0-0)0.0%<0.1%0.8%4.9%17.1%31.7%30.3%13.3%1.9%2.7
Coastal CarCCU(0-0)0.0%<0.1%0.8%5.0%16.7%31.1%30.6%13.7%2.0%2.7
Southern MissUSM(1-0)0.0%<0.1%<0.1%1.1%7.7%26.6%43.0%21.5%-2.2
Georgia StGAST(0-0)0.0%0.0%0.1%0.9%4.6%15.2%30.0%33.2%16.0%1.6
ULMULM(0-0)0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.6%3.8%15.0%32.1%34.4%14.1%1.6

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com