Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W23-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W20-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:21% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:71% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:55% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:19% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.0% | 77.0% |
| 6-2 | 13.7% | 15.3% |
| 5-3 | 28.0% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 30.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 18.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.0%) | 4.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.3% (+0.6%) | 4.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 4.7% (+0.0%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.5% (-0.2%) | 4.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 14.4% (+9.7%) | 2.1% (-2.6%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.5%) | 5.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.7% (+0.0%) | 4.8% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arkansas
Alabama
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Mississippi StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUCCG: 14.4% • Scenario: 21.2%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
77.3%
2.8%
100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
0.1%88.8%
0.1%
87.4%
0.3%
83.2%
0.2%
82.7%
0.2%74.0%
1.0%
71.3%
0.9%Any 2 losses
16.4%
12.8%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%44.8%
0.1%40.4%
<0.1%38.3%
<0.1%33.0%
0.1%30.3%
0.1%28.4%
0.1%27.1%
0.2%24.4%
0.1%24.2%
0.4%23.9%
0.4%22.3%
0.2%20.8%
<0.1%20.1%
0.7%19.4%
0.8%18.1%
0.8%17.7%
0.7%15.8%
0.5%15.1%
0.4%11.2%
1.5%10.7%
1.2%9.0%
3.9%Any 3 losses
11.2%
1.8%58.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%13.8%
0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.1%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.6%
0.3%Any 4 losses
2.2%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21