Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W17-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L14-38 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:14% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:39% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:11% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:7% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:55% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:11% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:42% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-2 | 0.0% | 63.6% |
| 6-3 | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 25.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 33.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 22.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 6.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Penn State
Iowa
USC
Washington
UCLA
RutgersCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Penn State
Illinois
NorthwesternCCG: 0.0% • Scenario: 18.2%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
40.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
40.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21