Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W55-0 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:72% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:82% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.0% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 22.1% | 70.3% |
| 6-2 | 34.3% | 9.7% |
| 5-3 | 25.7% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 10.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.6% (-0.2%) | 22.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.8% (-0.0%) | 23.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.7% (-2.1%) | 23.7% (+0.9%) | |
| 23.1% (+0.3%) | 22.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 24.0% (+1.2%) | 22.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 25.2% (+2.3%) | 22.2% (-0.6%) | |
| 22.4% (-0.5%) | 23.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 22.6% (-0.3%) | 24.5% (+1.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Arkansas
Alabama
MassachusettsCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
GeorgiaCCG: 23.7% • Scenario: 70.4%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
4.0%Any 1 loss
70.2%
22.1%
89.5%
0.8%
88.0%
1.9%87.8%
0.9%
86.7%
1.4%
83.1%
1.6%
83.1%
0.9%
79.0%
0.5%61.5%
14.1%Any 2 losses
9.7%
34.3%25.5%
0.2%25.0%
0.3%24.6%
0.3%23.1%
<0.1%22.8%
0.1%22.3%
0.3%22.0%
0.2%21.7%
0.4%21.3%
0.2%20.1%
0.3%19.6%
0.2%18.8%
0.1%18.4%
0.2%18.2%
0.3%17.6%
0.6%17.6%
0.4%17.2%
0.5%15.1%
0.6%14.5%
0.7%14.2%
0.4%13.6%
0.2%10.9%
3.0%9.3%
5.0%8.5%
5.4%8.5%
2.8%8.0%
1.8%6.8%
3.3%4.1%
6.7%1.9%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21