Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W52-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W56-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L35-41 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L31-32 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L13-56 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:48% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:57% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:33% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 85.4% |
| 6-2 | 1.4% | 17.9% |
| 5-3 | 7.9% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 22.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 32.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Florida
Mississippi State
VanderbiltCCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida
Texas A&MCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 13.6%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
85.4%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
17.9%
1.4%31.0%
0.1%
25.4%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%
20.7%
0.2%
17.5%
0.1%
15.3%
0.3%
14.9%
0.6%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28