Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W27-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W36-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:24% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:17% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:26% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 96.6% |
| 7-2 | 3.7% | 50.3% |
| 6-3 | 13.6% | 1.9% |
| 5-4 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 18.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9% (+0.3%) | 2.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.3% (+0.6%) | 2.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (-1.7%) | 7.8% (+5.2%) | |
| 2.6% (-0.1%) | 2.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.5% (-0.2%) | 2.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 2.6% (-0.1%) | 2.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.7% (+0.1%) | 2.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
West VirginiaHouston
Kansas State
UCF
Iowa State
Oklahoma StateCCG: 23.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 7.8% • Scenario: 24.3%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.6%
0.5%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
98.6%
<0.1%
95.6%
0.2%
90.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
50.2%
3.7%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%78.2%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%74.4%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
0.4%58.4%
0.3%57.5%
<0.1%57.0%
0.2%55.8%
0.2%53.6%
<0.1%52.9%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.3%48.8%
<0.1%40.0%
0.4%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
0.3%24.9%
0.5%Any 3 losses
2.0%
12.9%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
0.3%3.6%
0.6%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.0%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.3%2.4%
0.1%2.2%
0.9%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.5%1.6%
1.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
1.2%1.2%
0.7%1.1%
1.0%1.0%
0.7%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
1.2%0.8%
1.5%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28