Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-19 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-63 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W34-32 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W43-27 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:9% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:30% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:57% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 69.6% |
| 7-2 | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| 6-3 | 19.9% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 34.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 10.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.4%) | 3.8% (+3.4%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.3%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon
UCLA
PurdueIllinois
NorthwesternCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisCCG: 3.8% • Scenario: 9.4%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
69.6%
0.3%Any 1 loss
3.9%
4.8%
8.3%
0.3%
7.5%
0.8%
7.3%
0.3%
5.3%
0.4%3.7%
<0.1%
2.2%
3.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05