Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W38-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:79% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:61% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:35% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:54% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 12.3% | 96.0% |
| 7-2 | 26.3% | 52.0% |
| 6-3 | 30.5% | 3.2% |
| 5-4 | 19.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 7.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 27.9% (-0.8%) | 29.3% (+0.7%) | |
| 26.0% (-2.6%) | 31.1% (+2.5%) | |
| 28.8% (+0.1%) | 28.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 29.2% (+0.5%) | 28.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 28.6% (-0.0%) | 28.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.6% (+4.0%) | 13.9% (-14.7%) | |
| 27.8% (-0.8%) | 29.5% (+0.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Arizona State
Kansas
Cincinnati
Oklahoma StateBYU
Kansas StateCCG: 38.5% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 32.6% • Scenario: 78.6%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.2%Any 1 loss
96.0%
12.3%
99.6%
0.8%99.5%
1.1%
99.1%
0.6%
99.1%
2.4%
98.8%
1.4%
95.6%
2.0%
91.3%
4.1%Any 2 losses
52.0%
26.3%81.4%
0.2%78.5%
0.7%78.2%
0.8%76.6%
0.3%72.9%
0.5%71.4%
0.4%71.1%
0.4%68.6%
1.1%63.3%
0.7%62.6%
0.5%61.8%
0.7%60.4%
0.9%60.3%
1.4%60.3%
1.4%54.0%
1.1%52.7%
1.9%51.5%
2.0%50.4%
1.2%42.2%
4.0%34.8%
2.6%33.3%
3.5%Any 3 losses
3.2%
30.5%10.1%
0.2%8.5%
0.4%8.3%
0.2%7.9%
0.3%7.8%
0.3%7.1%
0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.2%
0.4%5.9%
0.5%5.6%
0.7%5.2%
0.5%5.1%
0.9%4.9%
0.5%4.9%
0.5%4.6%
1.5%4.4%
0.7%4.4%
1.1%4.3%
0.4%3.9%
0.2%3.6%
0.2%3.3%
0.7%3.1%
0.9%2.9%
1.3%2.9%
0.4%2.8%
2.1%2.5%
1.0%2.5%
1.3%2.3%
2.6%2.3%
0.7%2.2%
0.3%2.1%
1.7%1.7%
1.3%1.7%
0.6%1.4%
3.6%1.1%
2.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05