CincinnatiBearcats

4-1 T1st (2-0) in B12

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

8.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsNebraskaNEB(N)	L17-20
2	9/06	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W34-20
3	9/13	vsNorthwestern StateNWST	W70-0
5	9/27	@KansasKU	W37-34
6	10/04	vsIowa StateISU	W38-30
7	10/11	vsUCFUCF	Win prob:49%
8	10/18	@Oklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:84%
9	10/25	vsBaylorBAY	Win prob:48%
10	11/01	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:22%
12	11/15	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:71%
13	11/22	vsBYUBYU	Win prob:33%
14	11/29	@TCUTCU	Win prob:18%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.2%	100.0%
8-1	2.4%	94.4%
7-2	11.6%	44.5%
6-3	27.1%	2.0%
5-4	32.8%	0%
4-5	20.1%	0%
3-6	5.5%	0%
2-7	0.5%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

39.7%

28.4%

14.0%

9.8%

8.1%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Iowa StateISU@ColoradoCOLO	8.1% (-0.0%)	8.1% (+0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@UtahUTAH	6.8% (-1.3%)	9.4% (+1.3%)
KansasKU@Texas TechTTU	9.9% (+1.8%)	7.3% (-0.8%)
UCFUCF@CincinnatiCIN	3.3% (-4.8%)	13.0% (+4.9%)
HoustonHOU@Oklahoma StateOKST	8.0% (-0.1%)	8.4% (+0.3%)
BYUBYU@ArizonaARIZ	7.9% (-0.3%)	9.0% (+0.9%)
TCUTCU@Kansas StateKSU	7.8% (-0.3%)	8.5% (+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for

Colorado

Utah

Kansas

Cincinnati

Oklahoma State

Arizona

TCU

CCG: 27.9% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Cincinnati

CCG: 13.0% • Scenario: 49.7%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.2%

Any 1 loss

94.4%

2.4%

97.6%

0.2%

97.3%

<0.1%

95.4%

0.8%

94.6%

0.2%

93.6%

0.6%

93.3%

<0.1%

91.7%

0.4%

Any 2 losses

44.6%

11.6%

81.8%

<0.1%

72.5%

<0.1%

69.2%

<0.1%

68.0%

<0.1%

62.1%

0.2%

58.5%

0.4%

55.3%

0.6%

55.3%

<0.1%

54.2%

0.1%

54.0%

0.4%

54.0%

0.4%

52.4%

0.1%

52.1%

0.3%

51.3%

0.9%

49.8%

0.9%

48.8%

<0.1%

48.1%

0.2%

47.9%

0.7%

37.3%

2.9%

37.1%

1.8%

35.1%

1.4%

Any 3 losses

2.0%

27.1%

11.6%

<0.1%

8.9%

0.1%

8.6%

<0.1%

6.7%

0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.1%

<0.1%

6.1%

0.1%

4.7%

0.2%

4.6%

0.3%

4.4%

0.2%

4.1%

0.4%

3.8%

0.6%

3.6%

0.7%

3.5%

0.9%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.5%

0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.1%

0.4%

2.9%

0.3%

2.6%

0.3%

2.4%

0.3%

2.3%

1.4%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.3%

1.7%

2.2%

1.2%

2.0%

0.3%

1.9%

3.1%

1.8%

1.4%

1.7%

0.1%

1.6%

3.1%

1.4%

1.9%

1.3%

0.5%

0.9%

6.1%

0.8%

0.7%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com