Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W27-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W36-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L11-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:67% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:16% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:76% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:30% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:25% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 92.4% |
| 7-2 | 2.1% | 32.6% |
| 6-3 | 11.2% | 0.6% |
| 5-4 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 34.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.2%) | 0.1% (-0.7%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Arizona State
Kansas
CincinnatiHouston
Arizona
Kansas StateCCG: 2.6% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 81.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.4%
0.2%Any 1 loss
32.6%
2.1%
56.4%
<0.1%
45.8%
0.4%43.2%
<0.1%
41.4%
0.3%
35.4%
<0.1%
25.9%
0.4%23.3%
0.8%Any 2 losses
0.8%
6.8%2.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.8%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
1.1%0.5%
1.9%0.5%
1.9%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05