Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W68-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-9 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L20-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L20-27 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:51% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:84% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:41% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.6% | 65.8% |
| 6-3 | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| 5-4 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 34.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 26.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.5%) | 0.0% (-0.5%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Utah
KansasUCF
Oklahoma State
Arizona
TCUCCG: 2.1% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCFCCG: 1.0% • Scenario: 50.3%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
65.8%
0.6%Any 1 loss
2.0%
6.1%
5.0%
0.1%
4.2%
0.3%
2.7%
0.9%2.3%
<0.1%
1.8%
0.6%
1.8%
2.3%
1.5%
1.8%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05