Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W31-7 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W46-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L31-42 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L34-37 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W27-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:31% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:58% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:75% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:43% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 3.0% | 96.3% |
| 7-2 | 16.7% | 41.7% |
| 6-3 | 33.5% | 0.8% |
| 5-4 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.7% (-0.5%) | 10.6% (+0.5%) | |
| 8.8% (-1.4%) | 11.5% (+1.3%) | |
| 26.4% (+16.3%) | 3.0% (-7.2%) | |
| 11.0% (+0.8%) | 9.3% (-0.8%) | |
| 10.1% (-0.0%) | 10.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 9.8% (-0.4%) | 11.7% (+1.6%) | |
| 8.8% (-1.4%) | 11.7% (+1.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Arizona StateKansas
UCF
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Kansas StateCCG: 42.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
KansasCCG: 26.4% • Scenario: 30.6%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.3%
3.0%Any 1 loss
41.7%
16.7%63.2%
0.1%62.3%
2.2%61.6%
1.1%
46.1%
3.9%
43.8%
2.5%
28.3%
6.9%Any 2 losses
1.2%
19.0%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
0.8%2.7%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%2.2%
0.8%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
1.4%1.2%
2.3%1.1%
3.0%0.9%
5.0%0.6%
1.7%0.5%
3.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05